Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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025 FXCA20 KWBC 171806 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 205 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 17 JUN 2024 AT 1800 UTC: THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) THAT DEVELOPED...CAUSING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING...THAT AS OF THIS WRITING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DETERMINED THAT A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WILL RECEIVE EXCESSIVE AND VERY HAZARDOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS WEEK. ANOTHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE TUTT LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AND EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TUTT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS...CAUSING A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STARTING WITH THE CAG...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEK...EVEN BEYOND OUR 3-DAY PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THE 72-HR RAINFALL TOTAL WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 INCHES (200-250MM) ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE GOLFO DE FONSECA TO CHIAPAS OF MEXICO. OTHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF MEXICO...SUCH AS CHIAPAS...CAMPECHE...AND INTO THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN AND AROUND TAMAULIPAS...WHERE 72-HR MAX TOTALS OF 100-150MM ARE SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE CARIBBEAN REGION WILL BE UP AND DOWN EARLY THIS WEEK AS THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST THAT COULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THIS PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO GET TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR THAT REASON...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST AND PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS HAITI INTO CUBA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED...BUT SOME OF THEM COULD BE STRONG FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THE OVERALL EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER 50MM FOR THE 3-DAY PERIOD...BUT ISOLATED SECTIONS COULD OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS...SUCH AS THE POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH CAUSE ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 50MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL HAVE A SERIES OF SFC TROUGHS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. THE 72-HR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION COULD HAVE ISOLATED MAX VALUES OF 50-100MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND ECUADOR. BUT OVERALL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE CONVECTIVE...AS THE DIURNAL HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE TROUGHS IN THE AREA. EACH DAY WILL HAVE MAX TOTALS OF 25-45MM IN DIFFERENT SECTIONS. IN SUMMARY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE POSITIONING OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC...COMBINED WITH THE CAG...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A VERY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE A VERY HAZARDOUS MULTI-DAY WET SPELL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE SOME MOMENTS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN. NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL ALSO HAVE MOMENTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SFC TROUGHS COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALAMO (WPC) CLARKE (CINWS) FERNANDER (BDM) $$