040
FXCA20 KWBC 061848
PMDCA

Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EST Thu Nov 06 2025

Forecast Bulletin 06 November 2025 at 1845 UTC:

The Bahamas and the Caribbean:

Dry air continues to persist over the eastern Caribbean, limiting
rainfall activity across the area. Most of the precipitation for
today is expected to happen over the Bahamas and portions of Cuba
with moisture available in the area associated with a weakening
stationary front. Additionally,  enhancement in upper level speed
divergence particularly over Central Bahamas associated with an
upper level trough over the Gulf is expected. Precipitation may
continue for the Bahamas from Friday through Sunday as upper-level
speed divergence continues and some low-level troughs continue to
enhance low-level moisture convergence in the area.

Another region with the potential of some precipitation from today
through Friday is Jamaica, with a low-level trough moving into the
area and an increase in low-level moisture convergence. However,
an upper level ridge over Honduras moving southeastward and
extending over the Caribbean, could potentially inhibit the
development of deep convection. The chances for rainfall and
thunderstorms will increase from Friday through Saturday as an
easterly wave advects moisture into the region in the afternoon
and increases instability. This combined with diurnal heating and
upper-level diffluence along the periphery of the upper level high
may increase precipitation.

Moisture associated with an easterly wave is expected to approach
the Lesser Antilles from Friday through Saturday, increasing the
precipitable water available in the area and increasing
instability. Then from Saturday through Sunday precipitation
should increase with the easterly wave over the islands, and upper
level divergence increases with an upper level trough now south of
Hispaniola, moving over the Leeward Islands enhancing deep
convection and favoring the development of thunderstorms and
periods of heavy rainfall.

Mexico and Central America:

For Mexico and Central America, most of the precipitation from
today through Sunday will be due to low-level troughs, diurnal
heating and local effects. Conditions are expected to remain
relatively stable with dry air dominating over the region and
limited support front mid- to upper-levels.

An enhancement in precipitation may occur from today through
Friday over the Yucatan Peninsula, as a low-level trough
approaches the area and enhances moisture advection in the area
and a mid-level trough further increases instability. Some
upper-level support with a trough over the Gulf, although most of
the upper level divergence is expected to stay offshore.

Light rain may occur over Guatemala and El Salvador from Friday
through Sunday with low- and mid-level troughs along the Pacific
coast, although low precipitable water may limit precipitation.
Over Nicaragua, moisture advection from the Caribbean is expected
Saturday afternoon with an easterly wave reaching the region, and
this combined with diurnal heating and local effects should
increase precipitation.

Costa Rica and Panama should expect to see some precipitation each
day of the forecast period, due to the presence of the monsoon
trough and moisture being advected from the Caribbean as a plume
of moisture reaches the area today.

Tropical South America:

The presence of a plume of moisture over the Caribbean is expected
to bring some precipitation from today through Friday over
Colombia as low-level moisture convergence increases and upper
level divergence is enhanced with upper level diffluence over the
area. An area of interest from today through Friday is Venezuela,
northern Brazil and Guyana. Thunderstorms and heavy precipitation
is expected over the region as a plume of moisture associated with
an easterly wave approaches the area, low-level moisture
convergence is enhanced and upper level divergence increases along
the periphery of an upper level high centered over northeastern
Venezuela. Precipitation will continue over Venezuela from Friday
through Saturday, as the easterly wave continues to propagate.
From Saturday through Sunday a region of interest is the Pacific
coast of Colombia, as onshore flow from the Pacific increases in
the region. The rest of South America should expect some
precipitation each day, mostly associated with low-level moisture
convergence, moisture advection, diurnal heating and local effects


Positions of Tropical/Easterly Waves Initialized at 12 UTC
TYP SOF  INIT  07/00  07/12  08/00  08/12  09/00  09/12  1/00
EW  14N  47W   49W    51W    53W    56W    58W   62W    64W
EW  11N  56W   58W    60W    62W    64W    66W   68W    71W
EW  14N  79W   80W    82W    84W    ----------


For the latest available charts please visit:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

Rivera-Torres...(WPC)
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