Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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857 FXCA20 KWBC 211839 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 238 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 21 JUN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: THE TROPICAL REGION HAS SEVERAL FEATURES THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IS AN AREA OF DEEPENING PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL CAUSE A BROAD CIRCULATION INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG...SIMILAR TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) THAT WAS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO...THIS REINFORCEMENT OF THE CAG WILL CAUSE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER EAST-NORTHEAST MEXICO VERY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT AS MUCH AS 200MM OF RAIN OR MORE COULD BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE BOUNDARY OF VERACRUZ...TAMAULIPAS...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI. TODAY...THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMAULIPAS AND SAN LUIS POTOSI MAY RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 50MM OF RAIN...THEN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COULD OBSERVE OVER 150MM ON SATURDAY...WHILE ISOLATED AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN VERACRUZ COULD OBSERVE UPWARDS OF 60-100MM OR SO ON SUNDAY. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS AXIS...WHICH IS OVER AND AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY...WITH OVER 75MM OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE FORECAST 72-HR RAINFALL TOTAL COULD BE OVER 150MM IN ISOLATED AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...THERE ARE A FEW TROPICAL WAVES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...THOUGH MAINLY WILL BE SOUTH OF 15N. THIS MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD RECEIVE DAILY MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 60-80MM AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH...WHILE EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN. FURTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE BAHAMAS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL IN FACT BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALSO WORK TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. THEREFORE...SOME RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS...BUT THE AMOUNTS EACH DAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH MAX DAILY TOTALS OF AROUND 25-35MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. IN SUMMARY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE CAG WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WE SAW SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY...BUT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. PASSING TROPICAL WAVES MAY HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS WILL HAVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY...WITH THEN SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE LEEWARDS LATE TONIGHT...REACHING HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. ALAMO/ACOSTA (WPC) CLARKE (CINWS) FERNANDER (BDM) $$