Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
632 FXUS62 KCAE 161808 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 208 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place during the first half of the work week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day. A cold front is slated to move into the forecast area late Thursday into Thursday night then stall across the region. Upper ridging then builds in late this week and into the weekend as temperatures continue to warm though the chance of rain remains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms dissipating this evening - Patchy stratus clouds overnight with slightly above normal low temperatures. Upper level ridging extends from the southwest Atlantic and into the eastern Gulf of America, placing the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, a southwest low level flow persists, continuing to advect moisture into the area. The cumulus field continues to expand in coverage this afternoon, with more robust buildups and convection forming across the upper CSRA and western/northern Midlands where there appears to be a weak lee-side trough present. The latest CAMs continue to highlight this same general area for convective development this afternoon and this evening, although certainly cannot rule out at least isolated convection elsewhere given the moist/unstable environment. As with typical summertime convection, a few of the storms could become strong to possibly severe with the primary threat being damaging downburst winds. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding is also possible with slow storm motions and the potential for training cells given precipitable water values up near 2 inches. Highs should get into the lower 90s for most areas, with heat indices brushing the triple digits. Convection will generally dissipate later this evening. There is the potential for some patchy low stratus formation overnight, but fog is generally not expected to be much of an issue. The southwest flow and some cloud cover will combine to keep overnight temperatures slightly above normal, with lows in the lower to perhaps mid 70s most areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Continued hot and humid with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Typical summer weather conditions are expected during the short term as high pressure remains anchored near Bermuda. This will keep high PWATs in place though with the lack of any triggers, the chance of showers and thunderstorms should remain low, about 20 to 40 percent, each day. Rain chances will be highest north and west of I-20 as shortwaves pass to our northwest favoring convection closer to the Upstate. Daytime temperatures in the lower 90s, combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will result in heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, especially on Wednesday. Not much relief is anticipated at night with forecast low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Message(s): - A cold front approaches on Thursday with a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. - The front stalled and could trigger convection each day into the upcoming weekend. An upper trough centered over the Great Lakes region at the start of the extended will pass to our north Thursday into Friday. The attendant cold front will approach from the northwest, bringing a higher risk for showers and thunderstorms, especially in our northern counties which will be closer to the better large scale forcing. Model soundings at CAE and especially CLT show ample CAPE and an inverted-V sounding but low shear suggesting the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms with a primarily damaging wind threat. Beyond this, the front is expected to stall somewhere across the region keeping convective chances in the forecast despite upper ridging building in from the west late this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal, likely increasing further towards the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered convection will persist into this evening, but the coverage should be greatest at the Columbia and Augusta area terminals where a PROB30 is in the forecast for thunderstorms. Have kept any mention of convection out of the KOGB forecast at this time. Southwesterly winds could be gusty at times this afternoon, before becoming light/variable overnight. HREF suggests some patchy stratus developing toward daybreak, but confidence in its formation/coverage not great enough to introduce any ceilings into the the forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Apart from scattered afternoon convection, patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some restrictions through the extended. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$