889
FXUS62 KCAE 271154
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
654 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very dry and cold air mass moves for the remainder of
Thanksgiving week. Temperatures return to near normal values
late in the weekend with increasing confidence in active weather
and much needed rain early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Below normal temperatures

Dry, cold air will continue filtering into the forecast area in
the near term. Cold advection will keep highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, offset some by a strong downslope component to the
wind. Dewpoints will drop into the teens, or at least near 20
degrees, for much of the area. Winds will be weaker today than
the previous day with gusts only up to about 20 mph for a brief
period in the afternoon. Winds will stay up overnight but the
dry, cold air mass will still allow lows to fall below freezing
to as low as the mid 20s in some spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Very dry air filters in with temperatures 10-15 degrees below
  normal.

- Overnight lows likely falling into the 20s Friday night.

Very dry and cold air filters in to end the week and start the
weekend with PWAT`s under 0.15" much of the period with
sustained cold advection. The base of the upper trough will
finally pivot out of the FA through the day Friday before upper
flow becomes more zonal into Saturday. Surface high pressure
will work its way overhead through the day Friday and begin to
slowly work offshore Saturday, turning low level flow from the
northwest toward the northeast to east. With this very dry
airmass in place, dewpoints ranging from the mid teens to lower
20s are expected each day, dropping RH values during the
afternoon to below critical levels. With the surface high
working overhead, winds should be light luckily. As has been
advertised, much colder air will limit afternoon high
temperatures toward the upper 40s to lower 50s each day with
overnight lows Friday night likely the coldest of the season, at
least in the mid 20s. Increasing high cloud cover could limit
otherwise ideal radiational cooling conditions but NAM BUFKIT
soundings are a bit slower in bringing this in and if the cirrus
are thin enough, little effect may be seen, bringing the
potential for lows to fall into the lower 20s in spots. Saturday
night is expected to be a bit milder relatively speaking with
lows closer to the low to mid 30s, but if the high lingers a bit
longer slightly cooler conditions could be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderate some Sunday before falling back below
  normal early in the week.

- Confidence in active pattern through the early week continues
  to increase.

Confidence continues to increase in an active pattern to round
out the weekend and through the early parts of next week with
general agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance.
On Sunday, a sharp shortwave and associated surface low is
expected to move through the Midwest, turning upper flow across
the Southeast out of the southwest with rapidly increasing
moisture (PWAT`s just over 1"). A surface front is expected to
work toward the area through the day and any embedded shortwaves
could aid in sparking scattered rain showers through the day
with temperatures near average expected.

For the early week, good agreement is seen in another trough
moving across the western US and toward the region with
southwesterly moisture advection that allows PWAT`s to continue
to surge to near 170-190% of normal, possibly higher. The main
disagreement is the evolution in developing low pressure along
the Gulf Coast. In general, the two main camps are a trough that
is slightly deeper and displaced a bit further east that drives
a developing surface low across the northern Florida peninsula
and then just off the coast or a shallower trough displaced
further west that allows the low to move across the Southeastern
states. Each solution brings the potential for scattered to
widespread rain to the FA Monday and especially Tuesday, but the
shallower trough solution would likely lend to greater QPF
amounts with the low moving through the region. Either way,
confidence in much needed rainfall to the area continues to
increase. High pressure then is expected to slide back in behind
this system into the mid week with drier conditions.

Temperatures are a bit tricker, though the cooler trend has
continued as a degree of in-situ wedging conditions could
develop Monday, continuing into Tuesday. This uncertainty is
displayed well in near 10 degree differences between the NBM
25th and 75th percentile for each day. In general, confidence
for below normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday has
increased, but how much below normal is a bit more uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.

Expect NW winds throughout the period generally from 5 to 10
kts. A brief period of gusts up to 20 kts is possible this
afternoon, especially in our eastern GA sites where the pressure
gradient is stronger. NW winds stay up around 5 kts through
much of tonight. Mixing and dry air will preclude fog and
stratus.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...On Saturday night, moisture
begins to increase over the region bringing chances for
widespread restrictions and rain into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$