Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
594 FXUS62 KCAE 170056 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 856 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place during the first half of the work week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day. A cold front is slated to move into the forecast area late Thursday into Thursday night then stall across the region. Upper ridging then builds in late this week and into the weekend as temperatures continue to warm though the chance of rain remains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Isolated showers possible across the Pee Dee and northern Midlands this evening. Very little change in the synoptic and mesoscale setup expected throughout the evening with offshore ridging and strong moisture convergence remaining to our north. PWAT`s are generally around 2.0" across the northern Midlands, with some broad low convergence along a weak trough. Aloft, weak height falls continue across the Mid-Atlantic and into NC as a shortwave approaches. Between the low level convergence and lack of capping or inhibition aloft, the isolated showers should remain in the Pee Dee and northern Midlands but will be more widespread in NC. The severe potential will remain low with a distinct lack of shear, steadily lessening instability, and lack of forcing. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Continued hot and humid with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Typical summer weather conditions are expected during the short term as high pressure remains anchored near Bermuda. This will keep high PWATs in place though with the lack of any triggers, the chance of showers and thunderstorms should remain low, about 20 to 40 percent, each day. Rain chances will be highest north and west of I-20 as shortwaves pass to our northwest favoring convection closer to the Upstate. Daytime temperatures in the lower 90s, combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will result in heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, especially on Wednesday. Not much relief is anticipated at night with forecast low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): - A cold front approaches on Thursday with a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. - The front stalled and could trigger convection each day into the upcoming weekend. An upper trough centered over the Great Lakes region at the start of the extended will pass to our north Thursday into Friday. The attendant cold front will approach from the northwest, bringing a higher risk for showers and thunderstorms, especially in our northern counties which will be closer to the better large scale forcing. Model soundings at CAE and especially CLT show ample CAPE and an inverted-V sounding but low shear suggesting the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms with a primarily damaging wind threat. Beyond this, the front is expected to stall somewhere across the region keeping convective chances in the forecast despite upper ridging building in from the west late this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal, likely increasing further towards the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. Its really been a quiet evening for the TAFs as convection has either been very weak or steered clear of all sites. Clouds are diminishing as the sun is setting, but the situation is also being aided by some weak subsidence aloft via ridging building into the region. Scattered clouds are expected to hang around tonight but stratus and fog aren`t expected, especially given a 15-20 knot low-level jet developing. This is slightly surprising as stratus has been pretty common recently but guidance is adamant that we won`t see any develop. Kept a SCT015 group that was inherited from the previous TAFs as it seems reasonable. Winds are likely to begin gusting up to 20 knots as mixing begins mid tomorrow morning, gradually tapering off through the afternoon hours. Isolated showers/storms look possible tomorrow but don`t look likely enough to add into the TAFs at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Apart from scattered afternoon convection, patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some restrictions through the extended. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...