Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
811 FXUS62 KCAE 310018 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 818 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers moving through the PeeDee this evening. High pressure building in from the north will result in relatively dry conditions with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Low chances for precipitation late Wednesday and Wednesday night as a disturbance passes through, with a return to drier conditions for late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Few showers in the PeeDee this evening. A shortwave within the broad upper trough along with an outflow boundary triggered a few showers in the PeeDee this evening. Expect these showers to continue drifting south. Hi-res guidance suggests additional showers could develop over the next 2-3 hours. Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis, there is a small area of moisture convergence in that area, so it seems reasonable. Therefore, have added a slight chance of showers through 11 pm. After the showers dissipate, expect another night of cooler than normal temps tonight. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Drier, with below normal temperatures expected A large upper trough will continue to dig across the eastern CONUS, with a closed low developing over the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile low pressure will develop along a baroclinic zone off the southeast coast, reinforcing the surface wedge building southward along the lee of the Appalachians. Unlike typical in-situ wedges, this synoptic setup does not favor any significant moisture advection into the region. Model soundings depict northeast flow prevailing at the surface, with west/northwest flow aloft. In fact, precipitable water values could be 50-60% of normal by Monday. There could be enough mid-level moisture to result in partly cloudy skies on Sunday, with more sunshine looks on tap for Monday. Temperatures will be below normal, with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Breezy northeast flow is expected each afternoon due to a tight surface pressure gradient, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph possible at times. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Deep troughing favors cooler than normal conditions through the long term - Light rain possible midweek Ensembles show persistent deep upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS through the long term period. Dry weather will continue through Tuesday, but an approaching short wave trough could increase cloud cover on Wednesday and bring some precipitation late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Operational guidance is once again showing some greater rainfall totals, but blended guidance is not yet on board so uncertainty exists during this period. For the remainder of the period, the deep upper troughing will continue but to what degree is somewhat uncertainty with varying amplitudes depicted by the models. Overall, temperatures will remain below normal through the long term period, with the greatest potential for any rain coming mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through late tonight. Some fog-stratus possible Sunday morning, favoring OGB/AGS. A weak upper trough is pushing off the coast and associated surface low pressure will lift northeast away from the area overnight into Sunday. This will result in a weak boundary pushing through the forecast area with light winds overnight becoming northeasterly during the predawn hours. Lingering low level moisture with drier air aloft may support scattered stratus cloud development Sunday morning, primarily across the eastern Midlands and Coastal Plain but could also occur in the CSRA. Will carry tempo group for MVFR cigs at OGB/AGS. The setup looks similar for Sunday with a few isolated showers mainly focused in the southern Midlands with some impacts possible at OGB/AGS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture advection into the region may lead to early morning stratus or fog this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$