Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
999 FXUS62 KCAE 011902 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 302 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Mostly dry with above normal temperatures expected through Friday. - 2. Increasing chances for rain this weekend as a front approaches the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry with above normal temperatures expected through Friday. Upper level ridge axis remains to the west of the area and will gradually shift eastward towards the end of the week leading to above average temperatures as 500 mb heights will rise to near 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal based on ensemble means. This will likely lead to highs nearly 10 degrees above normal, in the low 90s as October begins unseasonable warm. With surface high pressure shifting offshore, low level moisture will gradually increase, although forecast soundings indicate a layer of substantial dry air in place that will preclude any rain today. As the ridge begins to break down and the deep layer moisture begins to increase, especially in the south, some isolated showers a possibly a stray storm remains possible in the afternoon but much of the area is expected to remain dry. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing chances for rain this weekend as a front approaches the area. There remains a lot of uncertainty as it pertains to the progression of a front through the area this weekend. NAEFS mean indicates PWATs by Saturday will increase to around the 99th percentile with high confidence in well above average moisture across the area. While forcing will be generally weak, especially on Saturday, weaknesses in the ridge and convergence along the front will lead to widespread rain chances Saturday continuing into Sunday. Models and ensembles show large split in total rainfall amounts through the weekend with an axis of heavier rain likely in the area. LREF still continues to show significant spread from around 0.75" to 2" between the 25th to 75th percentile through Sunday night. Monday drier air will likely begin to move into the northern area although there is uncertainty as to how deep a trough moving into the Great Lakes and thus how far south the front progresses but there is a chance for unsettled weather into the middle of next week. Cooler temperatures expected behind the front next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions giving way to possible restrictions in stratus/fog early Friday morning. Fair weather cumulus and light, variable winds continue this afternoon under high pressure. Moisture increases tonight as southerly flow continues, with otherwise mostly clear skies and light winds. Guidance continues to support another round of low stratus and fog developing after 09z Friday, initially along the Coastal Plain and then spreading inland toward the CSRA and eastern Midlands. TEMPO groups have been added for potential MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby restrictions between 09-13z at all sites. LIFR conditions are possible as well at some locations, mainly around OGB. Winds should remain light and variable with gradual improvement in restrictions by midmorning on Friday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in our southern areas where deeper moisture is expected in the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of precipitation this weekend may lead to additional restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...ND