142
FXUS62 KCAE 100000
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, drier and breezy conditions expected into Friday with a
Lake Wind Advisory in effect through the day. Coastal low
develops this weekend with continued breezy conditions but
mostly dry weather remains expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Breezy overnight with cool conditions.

- Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect into Friday.

A taste of Fall was seen today as breezy northeast winds
ushered in much cooler/drier air into the region with PWAT`s
under 1" and temperatures that currently sit in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Strong high pressure remains centered over northwest
New York, ridging down into the northern FA. WV imagery also
depicts a compact shortwave moving through Alabama and into
northwest Georgia, only bringing some passing cirrus to the
area. Overnight tonight, mostly clear skies are expected, but a
tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a
developing inverted surface trough along the baroclinic zone
off the SE coast should keep winds elevated, limiting cooling
some. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 50s across
the area with usual cool spots perhaps going into the upper 40s.
The tight pressure gradient along with a 25-35 kt LLJ overnight
should yield more choppy conditions over area lakes with gusts
to 25-30 mph possible here, thus the Lake Wind Advisory remains
in effect overnight. Low level flow should become a bit more
easterly toward the early morning hours, leading to a bit of
moistening and some cloud cover, especially in the eastern
Midlands, but dry conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Developing low offshore will continue breezy conditions with some
showers possible late Friday.

- More persistent showers possible across eastern SC on Saturday as
the low strengthens.

A sharp digging shortwave will push offshore Friday, visible in the
water vapor imagery this afternoon, and interact with a decaying
baroclinic zone associated with Wednesday`s front. A fairly classic
display of cyclogenesis is then expected as this trough tilts less
positive and spins up along the strong thermal gradient. With a very
strong surface high still in place across the NE CONUS, the low
development will maintain a strong pressure gradient across the
area Friday; wind gusts again 25-30 mph are expected Friday.
The persistent northerly dry advection will steadily weaken from
low to upper levels throughout Friday as well and some
sufficient moisture advection will wrap around the developing
low for a few showers across southern CSRA and eastern Midlands.
Rain chances will continue overnight Friday and throughout
Friday as the low steadily strengthens and lifts north. PWAT`s
by Saturday morning will climb over 1.25", mainly along and east
of I-95, and this is where the majority of showers should
remain. Since much of our area will remain on the fringe of the
deep moisture and strongest synoptic forcing, QPF totals should
remain low with some waves of moderate showers likely. Despite
the developing low, the surface high to our north with push far
enough east to weaken the pressure gradient somewhat over the
area, so while winds will remain gusty, they will not be as
strong Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Coastal low pushes north and dry, breezy conditions fill in behind
it.

The upper trough associated the lifting coastal low is expected to
push off to the northeast by Sunday morning and will drag the plume
of high PWAT`s away from our area. NAEFS and EC ensemble guidance
shows fairly high confidence with a limited spread in high
temperature forecast as upper ridging begins to strengthen over the
central CONUS behind as the low ejects into the NE CONUS. This will
likely lead to a steady warming trend with above average
temperatures by midweek, despite northerly component low level flow.
With this upper ridging, dry conditions are expected to continue
with below average PWAT`s and some downsloping likely into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions more likely than not through the TAF period
although MVFR ceilings are possible Friday morning.

Tonight, a 30 to 35 kt LLJ will persist over the region but
surface winds will stay up around 5 to 10 kts, making LLWS
criteria unlikely.

As low pressure develops offshore, low level moisture begins to
return from the east on Friday morning. This may bring some low
clouds back into the terminals around 12Z. Models have been
trending towards cigs right around the VFR/MVFR threshold but
favored the more optimistic guidance until we see how things
unfold tonight. OGB would be the most likely to experience MVFR
ceilings for a several hours in the morning and into mid day
but shorter duration restrictions are also possible at the other
sites. VFR should return to all sites by Friday afternoon.
Gusty NE winds continue with gusts higher than 20 kts expected
at times on Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry conditions and predominantly
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the extended.
Gusty NE winds are expected again Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$