Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
879 FXUS62 KCAE 030553 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1253 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of dry weather is expected this week as a pair of high pressure centers move through the region. Temperatures will be near to above normal, gradually warming each day. The next chance of rain holds off until the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Upper trough is moving overhead, with some showers possible in the CSRA overnight. - Breezy, dry west winds expected the rest of Monday. Early this morning: The upper trough axis is pushing across the area overnight, producing some showers across eastern GA thanks to steep lapse rates and some elevated instability. Showers should steadily dissipate as they approach the CSRA, with weakening instability and forcing as the trough pivots east. Otherwise, the primary question is stratus or fog development between the showers in GA and offshore low pressure and associated cloud cover. Rest of Monday: By late Monday morning, the upper trough axis will pivot through and allow for deep westerly flow and strengthening winds. Decent mixing thanks to still steep lapse rates should help mix down the stronger 850mb winds, so some wind gusts over 20 mph are expected throughout the afternoon with otherwise dry conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Sunny and dry with near to above normal temperatures. - Patchy frost is possible Tuesday night. Weak ridging or zonal flow aloft will be in place during the short term. At the surface, high pressure will be initially centered over the Appalachian Mountains, passing overhead Tuesday night, then offshore on Wednesday. On Tuesday, winds will start off northerly shifting around to the southwest by daybreak Wednesday as high pressure traverses the region. This will result in mainly sunny and dry conditions both days with near to above normal temperatures, warmer on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cold Tuesday night due to idealized radiational cooling with forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will need to monitor the potential for at least patchy frost on Tuesday night. Lows should be warmer Wednesday night, eliminating the threat of frost. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Continued dry with above normal temperatures through at least Friday. - The next chance of rain arrives towards the weekend. Another area of high pressure passes to the north on Thursday, quickly moving offshore as a cold front approaches on Friday. Thursday and Friday remain dry with above normal temperatures and a gradual increase in moisture Friday and especially Friday night. The upcoming weekend will bring the next chance of rain but there remains a large spread in model solutions for Saturday and Sunday and confidence in precipitation is low. A potent upper trough may approach the region late in the weekend, potentially bringing much cooler weather. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A few showers will push through AGS and DNL overnight. Some IFR stratus-fog possible, mainly at CAE, CUB, and OGB early Monday. A deep upper level low pressure is pushing across the area tonight, with some showers moving into eastern GA. Confidence is low in these making it to AGS and DNL, so went with a VCSH mention through 08z. Otherwise, some stratus and fog is expected to develop to the east of these showers; likely impacting OGB with lower confidence at CAE and CUB. IFR stratus cigs are the most likely restriction as result with predominant and tempo groups including for those sites respectively. Any restrictions will lift by mid-morning and drier air will quickly fill in with gusty west winds developing. Gusts to around 20 mph are expected throughout the afternoon at all TAF sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions expected beyond Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$