082
FXUS62 KCAE 031220
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
820 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures warming to near normal through Thursday ahead of a
cold front. Front moves through Thursday night, expected to be
mostly dry. Above average temperatures Friday and Saturday
before another front moves into the area late this weekend
leading to chances for rain into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer today, dry weather likely

Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States weakens
today and moves offshore. Aloft, upper level troughing persists
as a shortwave trough moves over the southern Appalachians late
in the day. With a very weak pressure gradient near the surface,
winds should be weak and will vary in direction. Atmospheric
moisture will remain limited compared to normal with PWAT values
under 1.25 inches. Some modification of the air mass will
result in temperatures a bit warmer than the previous day. Highs
will mainly be in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the low
to mid 60s.

Although the air mass over the forecast area is still
relatively dry, the shortwave may trigger convection in the
higher terrain of the Upstate. Showers may move into the area
late in the day but will likely dissipate in the dry air mass as
daytime heating is lost. The HRRR and other HREF members show a
few showers in the Upstate but keep measurable outfall out of
the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warming trend continues through the end of the week.

Surface low pressure expected just south of the Hudson Bay with a
cold front extending southward through the Ohio Valley.
Southwesterly flow will strengthen leading to warm advection in the
low levels. Moderately high confidence in high temperatures near
average as a result Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to around
90. Southwest flow will also lead to noticeable increase in humidity
with dew points in the 60s. Deep moisture will be more limited,
however, with HREF mean PWATs generally between 1.2 to 1.3 inches
through much of the day. This, along with global models indicating
the strongest forcing remains north of the area and some rising
500mb heights, will likely keep the area dry as the front moves
through Thursday night. Lingering boundary layer winds will
lead moderating lows as well with low temperatures Thursday
night in the mid to upper 60s.

Modest 500mb height rises and weak warm advection will continue to
lead to warming Friday with blended guidance favoring above average
temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dry weather continues
with some developing cumulus as forecast soundings indicate
significant dry layer above 10kft. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Above normal temperatures Saturday with a cold front moving
  into the area Sunday.

- Slight chance to chance for showers and possibly a couple
  storms Sunday and into the early week.

Blended guidance shows limited spread in temperature guidance for
Saturday as the warming trend is expected to continue ahead of
another cold front pushing into the Appalachians. EC EFI indicates
most of the area will be greater than 0.5 for max temperatures
Saturday, indicating unusually warm conditions for this time of
year. The front will likely shift into the area Sunday which will
lead to more uncertainty as it pertains to both the temperature
forecast and pop forecast. Unlike the front earlier in the week,
probability of PWATs greater than 1.5 inches will be much higher,
around 60 to 80 percent. With convergence along the front, there
will be higher chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms,
although probability of even 500 J/kg among GEFS members is less
than 30 percent. The question will be how far south the front will
actually shift with the further south limiting precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the 24 hour TAF period

Weak high pressure moves across the forecast area from west to
east through the period. Winds will be light for the next 24
hours and calm overnight. In general surface winds may start the
day out of the NE and change to southerly by the afternoon.
However with lights winds near or less than 5 kts this may
ultimately mean winds can be classified as light and variable
through. A relatively dry air mass will very likely prevent
showers from impacting the terminals today.

Tonight, shallow moisture may lead to brief periods of fog at AGS.
However this is not shown in the HRRR or MOS guidance.
Therefore, confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this
point.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases ahead of a
cold front late this week and could possibly lead to early
morning restrictions. A few showers are also possible Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...