130
FXUS62 KCAE 060551
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1251 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light right remain possible overnight in the southern
and eastern forecast area with patchy drizzle and fog elsewhere.
Unsettled weather then continues into the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Dry conditions are then
anticipated for the mid to late week period while temperatures
remain below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- An area of light to moderate rain impacts mainly locations
  south and east of I-20 during the next few hours. Otherwise, a
  cool, cloudy night is expected with areas of patchy drizzle
  and fog.

- Widespread showers Saturday, especially south and east of
  I-20, followed by clearing skies from northwest to southeast.

- Trapped low-level moisture may result in fog development
  towards daybreak Sunday.

Radar at this hour shows another batch of light to moderate
rainfall moving into the southern CSRA. This rain will continue
northeast, mainly impacting locations south and east of I-20
during the next few hours. Areas of patchy drizzle and fog are
expected elsewhere. The clouds and rain will limit cooling with
forecast lows mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A moisture gradient will set up across the FA on Saturday with
PWATs at daybreak ranging from 0.6 inches in the northwest to
around 1 inch in the southeast. With this in mind, precipitation
should be focused south and east of I-20 on Saturday where
another round of light to moderate rainfall is expected in the
afternoon. Precipitation then ends from northwest to southeast
as drier air pushes into the region. While there may be some
initial clearing during the evening and overnight hours, the
latest guidance is suggesting that trapped low-level moisture
will lead to fog development Saturday night. In terms of
temperature, highs will struggle to reach the upper 40s to near
50 degrees during the day but should radiate effectively for at
least a few hours at night with forecast lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Mostly dry and continued cool Sunday
- Increased chances of rain and colder on Monday

The forecast area looks to be between shortwaves on Sunday with
the area in the wake of the passing shortwave from Saturday and
drier air over the region as PWATs will be well below an inch.
High pressure remains entrenched across the Carolinas and with
extensive cloud cover remaining in place expect high
temperatures to continue to be below normal with highs in the
lower 50s. Another shortwave will approach the forecast area
Sunday night and cross the area on Monday. PWATs rise back to
near normal ahead of the shortwave and the combination of
increased moisture and strong upper forcing could result in some
light rain moving across the forecast area late Sunday night
through Monday. Rainfall totals look to be relatively light with
most locations seeing a quarter inch or less of rain. As the
trough axis crosses the region on Monday, a cold front will push
through the region before surface high pressure settles over
the area by Tuesday morning. Temperatures on Monday will be
slightly colder than Sunday with in situ wedging and widespread
clouds followed by a cold night Monday night with lows falling
below freezing ranging from the mid 20s northern Midlands to the
upper 20s and lower 30s in the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Generally dry with some moderation in temperatures
- Breezy with a dry frontal passage late in the week

The long term forecast generally features dry weather and
moderating temperatures back to near normal. Ensemble guidance
in good agreement with LREF mean 500mb heights showing a mean
upper trough across the eastern part of the country with upper
ridging building into southern CA and the Four Corners region.
Ensemble PWATs are well below normal on Tue/Wed then gradually
return to normal by Thursday. A series of shortwaves will move
through the northwesterly flow of the mean upper trough but
limited moisture should prevent any precipitation chances
through Wednesday but increasing moisture ahead of a stronger
shortwave trough on Thursday may support some rain chances late
in the week. Expect breezy conditions to develop on Thursday
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary with 850mb winds around
50 knots and this is supported by a weak EC EFI wind signal.
Temperatures will begin the period well below normal with cold
high pressure overhead on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
through Thursday as the surface high shifts offshore and a
southerly flow develops. A front will push through late in the
week bringing a return to cold temperatures again.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low Ceilings Continue at the Terminals for much of the TAF
Period....

All terminals are reporting IFR to LIFR ceilings at the moment
with reduced visibility also being reported at OGB. An area of
light to moderate rain will impact AGS/DNL and then OGB during
the next few hours, likely resulting in further restrictions.
CAE/CUB are expected to be mainly dry tonight barring patchy
drizzle. Fog may also impact the other terminals tonight,
especially AGS. Limited improvement is expected on Saturday with
mainly IFR ceilings expected. Another area of moderate rainfall
is expected in the afternoon for OGB/AGS/DNL. While not shown in
the TAFs, improvement is expected after 00Z with clearing skies
though fog may develop once again beyond the current TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Patchy fog could impact the
terminals around daybreak Sunday. Rain chances diminish Sunday
and into the early week. Any rain may result in brief
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$