752
FXUS62 KCAE 071046
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
646 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will move in behind a cold front today and into the
weekend. Another cold front will move through the area and
stall along the coast early next week. This will result in
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through mid
week. Temperatures will be near or above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The axis of an upper level trough will shift east today with a
cold front continuing east of the forecast area with drier air
behind it. The airmass behind the front is not much cooler but
we will see dewpoints drop into the 50s. NW or WNW low-level
downslope flow will lead to increased adiabatic heating and
lower RH values than they would otherwise be. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s with clear or mostly clear skies.
Winds will be breezy behind the front with gusts from 15 to 20
mph possible. Temps tonight will be slightly cooler than the
past few days in the low to mid 60s. A 20 kt LLJ will prevent
ideal radiational cooling tonight and limit the threat of fog
formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Not really much change in the forecast for the early part of the
weekend. High pressure will keep conditions dry through Saturday
night. Winds out of the west along with plenty of sunshine will
keep afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s for most
of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will be situated north of the cwa on Sunday, slowly
tracking southward towards the area through the day. Region will
see more of a downsloping flow pattern ahead of this front
through the day Sunday, and this will have the affect of
bringing some of the warmest afternoon temperature readings to
the region in quite a while. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper
90s should occur. The downsloping winds will also help to keep
much of Sunday dry, with moisture still rather limited. The
surface front is expected to move across the cwa Sunday night
into Monday morning, with some moisture increase along the
front. This will bring at least scattered showers to the
northern half of the Midlands overnight, while the southern half
of the cwa will remain dry. Overnight lows will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s Sunday night.

The front moves south and east Monday before stalling out close
to the coast for the remainder of the forecast period. Moisture
will remain along and near the front, and with weak energy
moving along the front each day, expect that the region will see
more of a summerlike pattern as scattered mainly diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms develop each day. Temperatures
should be near or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF period.

A cold front will continue east today with dry air following
and breezy NW winds. VAD wind profile from KCAE shows a 20 kt
LLJ which will mix down over the next few hours picking up winds
at the surface. Restrictions are unlikely because the dry air
will hinder any fog/stratus development and prevent convection
in the afternoon. During the day expect mostly clear skies with
NW winds gusting up to 20 kts. Another 20 kt LLJ tonight will
also limit the fog threat, keeping VFR conditions in place.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases early next week
which may lead to early morning fog or stratus and diurnal
convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$