665
FXUS62 KCAE 262132
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
432 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very dry and cold air mass moves in tonight for the remainder
of Thanksgiving week. Temperatures return to near normal values
late in the weekend with increasing confidence in active
weather and much needed rain early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Secondary cold front to push through the area tonight,
  ushering in a cooler and drier airmass.

Deep, upper level troughing has overtaken the eastern CONUS,
with a broad surface low driving an airmass change into the
region. Dewpoints have fallen back into the upper 40s, but
temps this afternoon have actually been quite pleasant as the
real cold front remains upstream of the area. Frequent wind
gusts of 20-25 mph out of the west and west-southwest helped to
keep temps in the 70s throughout the afternoon. However, out
airmass change will arrive shortly as guidance indicates that
the front currently in the lee of the Appalachians will move
through between 7p and 10p this evening. Winds should then shift
out of the northwest with temperatures and dewpoints tanking.
Our temps are forecast to fall into the mid 30s by tomorrow
morning with northwesterly winds continuing between 5 and 10 mph
for most of the night. Other than this, there is little to
report on impacts wise as subsidence aloft and dry air will
keep the rest of the weather fairly quiet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Much colder and drier air mass settles over the region.

- Overnight lows likely falling into the 20s.

Upper level trough axis will swing through the Carolinas but
air mass will extremely dry with PWATs at or below a quarter
inch so no precipitation is expected. A reinforcing front will
bring even drier air to the region Thursday night into Friday
with some of the coldest air of the season expected. Highs on
Thursday will be about 15-20 degrees colder than today and below
normal but highs on Friday will be even colder, around 10
degrees below normal struggling to get out of the 40s to around
50 degrees for much of the area. There could be some fire danger
concerns from a meteorological standpoint on Thursday with deep
mixing expected to lower dewpoints into the lower 20s and teens
resulting in critical RH values, although winds should not be
quite as high as today.

Despite the lack of ideal radiational cooling and clear skies,
low temperatures Thursday night are expected to fall below
freezing with strong cold advection as a surface high builds
into the region. The surface high will build over the area on
Friday and be overhead Friday night which should provide near
ideal radiational cooling and result in our coldest night of the
season. There is the possibility of some higher clouds moving
into the area Friday night as upper level flow flattens more
zonally which could impact radiational cooling. However, with
the very dry air mass in place and thinking any cloud cover may
be thin high clouds think lows in the mid 20s are still
reasonable and if the clouds do not arrive then lower 20s may be
more likely especially in the northern and western Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold Saturday then some moderation of temps into early next week.

- Increasing confidence in more active weather pattern next week.

Increasing confidence in a transition to a more active weather
pattern developing early next week as ensemble and global model
guidance is coming into better agreement with the overall
pattern. Saturday continues to look relatively cold but dry with
high pressure overhead. There is some lower confidence in how
cold Saturday night could be depending on how quickly the
surface high shifts offshore and whether or not clouds increase
through the night. The NBM4.3 continues to be an outlier with a
low outside of its own inner quartile range (IQR) on the warm
side (likely a negative effect of the bias correction) while the
NBM5.0 is quite a bit colder with its IQR and a low within it
in the mid 20s which is in line with MOS guidance.

On Sunday into Monday ensemble and global guidance shows upper
level troughing across the western CONUS resulting in
southwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states and with
the surface highs shifting offshore, a significant surge in
moisture is expected with PWATs rising from around 50 percent of
normal Saturday to nearly 150 percent of normal by Sunday
afternoon with a warm advection pattern developing. This will
also result in moderating temperatures with highs on Sunday
about 10-15 degrees warmer than Saturday.

The details of the pattern early next week remain uncertain but
the pattern with deep southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching upper trough would favor increased rain chances
across the forecast area early to mid week and depending on how
much moisture advection occurs there could be a chance for
significant rainfall, which would be welcomed as the area has
been abnormally dry to moderate drought according to the drought
monitor. Temperatures are a bit more uncertain next week also
depending on cloud cover, rainfall and the possibility of some
low level wedging occurring with trends in max temperatures
being a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with gusty winds expected through the daytime
hours.

Initial cold front has pushed east of the area, taking rainfall
chances along with it. Behind this front, skies have turned
mostly sunny with mainly mid and upper level scattered
cloudiness. Winds will be the biggest issue through the daytime
hours into Thanksgiving. Winds ahead of a secondary cold front
still off to the west will be out of the southwest to west, with
gusts of 25 knots possible through sunset. Later tonight as the
secondary front moves through, winds will turn more out of the
northwest. Gusts will diminish, but sustained winds will remain
between 5-10 knots through Thanksgiving day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases Sunday with
increasing rain chances and chances for restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...