338
FXUS62 KCAE 110009
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
809 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will form tonight and pass off the coast this
weekend, resulting in greater rain chances along with cooler and
breezy conditions, mainly across the eastern Midlands. High
pressure will then prevail through the middle of next week, with
dry weather and near to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy and cool tonight with increasing rain chances, mainly
  across the southern and eastern Midlands.

An inverted trough off the coast is expected to develop into an
area of low pressure by daybreak in response to a deepening
upper trough over the Southeastern United States. It`ll be
cloudy tonight with increasing rain chances, especially along
and south/east of I-20. There is a tight northwest to southeast
PWAT gradient with low values towards the Upstate where it will
likely remain dry tonight. Rain amounts are expected to be on
the low end, generally at or under a tenth of an inch, though
some of the CAMs show the potential for higher amounts as rain
bands begin to pivot inland from the coast. The pressure
gradient will also tighten tonight and a Lake Wind Advisory
remains in effect as a precaution, though the strongest winds
will likely be observed near and after daybreak. The clouds will
limit radiational cooling tonight with forecast lows generally
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and breezy through the weekend with chances for showers
  in the east.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Surface low pressure will
strengthen and lift north along a baroclinic zone off the
southeast US coast, while an upper low closes off over eastern
Georgia. A tight surface pressure gradient will persist,
maintaining breezy north-northeast winds to start the weekend.
Wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible at times, likely
highest across the central Midlands. The ongoing Lake Wind
Advisory has been extended until 15Z Saturday morning.

Given the proximity of the coastal low and placement of the
upper low to the south, deep moisture is expected to penetrate
well inland. Most of the CAMs are in good support showing
scattered to perhaps numerous showers over the area, with the
greatest coverage across the Pee Dee and eastern Midlands.
Extensive cloud cover, cooler northerly flow and precipitation
will keep high temperatures down into the upper 60s east to
lower 70s west.

Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper trough axis will shift east,
as the coastal low lifts toward the North Carolina coast.
Sufficient moisture should remain in place, supporting mostly
cloudy skies and scattered showers across most areas.
Showers should diminish and skies begin to clear from the
southwest beginning Sunday night as a drier northwesterly flow
develops. The surface pressure gradient will relax a bit, with
wind gusts down to 15-20 mph for most areas. High temperatures
should moderate some, with lower to mid 70s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming to above average with dry weather.

Strong upper ridging will become established over the southern
Plains through the long term period, placing the region along
its eastern periphery with a northwest flow aloft. Blended
guidance supports a dry forecast, with near to slightly above
normal temperatures. However, it should be noted that weak
disturbances in the northwest flow aloft can sometimes trigger
convection not resolved well by the models.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions deteriorate through the TAF period

As low pressure develops offshore and moves up the East Coast
tonight through Saturday, we will see deep moisture push into
the Carolinas and eastern GA. This will lead to lowering
ceilings through the period with MVFR conditions likely by 15Z
Saturday and IFR ceilings possible by 00Z Sunday. Rain chances
increase tonight with showers moving into the coastal plain
overnight, potentially reaching OGB as early as 06Z. Models
then show a lull in shower activity during the morning hours
before a surge of deeper moisture and showers move into the
region Saturday afternoon. This may lead to widespread showers
potentially affecting all TAF sites.

North to northeast winds are expected to prevail through the
TAF period. Periodic gusts to 25 kts or higher are likely for
much of the period as well with a lull overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions likely as a coastal
low wraps moisture back into the forecast area into Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$