869
FXUS62 KCAE 150528
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken ahead of a reinforcing dry cold front
Wednesday night, with temperatures several degrees cooler
behind the boundary. Another front may approach late in the
weekend, bringing the next chance for rainfall along with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warm, dry and sunny weather expected today

An amplified upper level pattern is forecast across the CONUS
today, with several moving parts impacting our weather locally.
Despite the amplified pattern, the weather here looks
tremendous. There is almost an omega block set up across the
central US, with two deep troughs along the east coast and the
west coast. As the upper low over the Sierra Nevada pushes
northeastward today atop the ridge, the eastern US trough is
forecast to continue digging further south. The expectation is
that this will push a dry cold front southward towards the area
today and through the area tonight, ushering in another shot of
dry and cool air to end the week. Our weather today should be
largely unaffected by this, though. We remain quite dry with a
seasonally low PW airmass in place across the area (~1" or
less). Upper level convergence on the western side of this
trough will favor mostly sunny skies, and with the front
approaching after dusk this evening, we shouldn`t see much in
the way of compressional heating ahead of the front. So expect
highs near 79F-82F like they were yesterday. Mostly clear skies
are expected tonight, with lows falling into the mid 50s behind
the front. It is possible that some areas make a run at the
upper 40s in the Pee Dee region but winds look a bit too high to
favor that kind of radiational cooling.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and dry both Thursday and Friday.
- Chilly conditions likely Thursday and Friday nights.

High pressure behind the exiting cold front will bring cool and
dry conditions across the area through Friday night. Expect
plenty of sunshine through the daytime hours, with with a good
amount of cold advection afternoon highs will be in the middle
70s on Thursday, and only the lower to middle 70s on Friday.
Those clear skies, dry airmass, and expected light winds during
the over night hours should bring ideal radiational cooling
conditions each night. Overnight low temperatures are forecast
to drop into the middle 40s to around 50 degrees both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer on Saturday ahead of the next approaching cold front.
- This cold front will bring the next chance of rain on Sunday.
- Dry conditions return for early next week.

High pressure centered north of the region will be moving off
the east coast Saturday, allowing a return flow to begin across
the region into Sunday. Dry conditions will persist for Saturday
as moisture return will be limited. Additional moisture will be
advection across the area by Sunday morning ahead of the next
cold front. This front will bring our next chance for rainfall
ahead of it through the day Sunday. Instability still appears
rather limited, and best dynamics with the upper trough moving
through will remain north of the forecast area. While an
isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out along the front,
majority of the rainfall should be showers. Coverage may be
somewhat limited, but at least scattered coverage is expected
along the front. The front moves through Sunday night into
Monday, with a return of drier conditions to start off the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period.

Clear skies are present across the region this morning with high
pressure and dry air in place. This is forecast to pretty much
carry through the entire forecast period with limited changes
expected. Winds are calm right now, which is likely to favor
ground fog development through the early morning hours at OGB
and AGS. Have that forecast in a TEMPO group but may need to
adjust the hours depending on observations. From there, winds
variable between 350 and 030 at 5-10 knots look common across
the area today ahead of an approaching dry cold front from the
north. The dry airmass should favor another day with few to no
clouds in the sky. Tonight, winds will likely be the primary
forecast problem but they look to pick up just after this period
ends.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions continue through
Friday. A dry frontal boundary passes during midweek is
expected to shift winds from N/NW to NE. Moisture should
increase this weekend, ramping up chances for restrictions and
convection ahead of another front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$