162
FXUS62 KCAE 150821
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active/muggy weather pattern continues to end the weekend,
with another chance for afternoon showers/storms and Heat Index
values nearing 100 degrees. Ridging will build into the
Southeast this week leading to warming temperatures and a more
typical summertime pattern of scattered thunderstorms. Heat
Index values may exceed 100 degrees in the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Heat Index values approaching or just exceeding 100F today.

- Scattered diurnal showers/storms expected this afternoon and
  into the evening.

Well, here we go again with a pattern that is becoming all too
familiar considering the time of the year. A couple isolated
showers that were part of a more organized segment of convection
earlier this evening in GA are moving through the southern CSRA
and eastern Midlands, likely decaying over the next couple
hours. Today synoptically speaking, sees little change through
the day with maintenance of the subtropical high off the
Southeast coast, though WV imagery displays the trough just to
our west in the Tennessee Valley inching closer. The main impact
this could have on sensible weather today is some model
guidance show a compact shortwave moving across the upstate of
SC and into NC by the mid to late afternoon. This may allow for
slightly greater convective coverage this afternoon and evening
toward the Pee Dee region if the shortwave passes a bit closer
to the FA.

In general, the environment will not change much as
southwesterly moisture transport is maintained, keeping PWAT`s
near 1.8-2.0" and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s.
Possible greater insolation this afternoon should allow a
moderately to strongly unstable environment to be realized with
a bit more deep layer shear (15-20 kts) due to the proximity of
the trough to our west. This likely brings another
afternoon/evening with scattered diurnal showers/storms to the
FA where a few strong storms can be expected with isolated
severe storms possible, especially with any potential mesoscale
boundary interactions. The main hazards continue to be isolated
damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms and periods of
efficient, heavy rainfall that could bring localized flooding.
There is a hint in high res models that upon the passage of the
shortwave to the north this afternoon, slightly drier air
(PWAT`s around 1.7") could move in as flow aloft turns a bit
more westerly, possibly limiting coverage some. A gradual
warming trend looks to start today with afternoon highs pushing
the low 90s and heat indices that peak around 100-104F with the
maintenance of the humid airmass. Tonight is expected to be
mostly on the dry side with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Seasonable weather through the short term

Bermuda high pressure remains stationed over the western
Atlantic with southwest flow directed into the Southeast. PWAT
values will be closer to normal than the previous week with
values generally around 125 percent of normal. A seasonal
synoptic pattern and near normal atmospheric moisture will lead
to typical summertime conditions with scattered, pulse-type
convection each afternoon/evening. There will be a normal, low
chance of damaging downburst winds from thunderstorms.
Temperatures will mainly be in the low 90s, just a few degrees
above normal. Heat Index values should range from 97 to 103
degrees F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer weather for mid-week, HI values near or above 100F
- At least a chance of showers and storms each day

Wednesday and Thursday may be the warmest days of the week ahead
of a cold front which will move into the eastern US late in the
week. Highs will be a few degrees above normal, ranging from
the low to mid 90s, with Heat Index values from 98 to 105
degrees F each afternoon. Mainly isolated to scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms can be expected through Thursday. An
upper level trough will likely lift into the Northeast late this
week. A trailing cold front could push into the Southeast but
temperatures will show little change. With a weak front over the
region and near normal atmospheric moisture we should expect at
least a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A couple stray showers are in the vicinity of the terminals for
the next couple hours with VFR conditions. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to develop into Sunday morning, giving way to VFR
conditions in the afternoon outside of any potential convection.

A couple showers are near AGS/DNL/OGB at this time, but these
have been quickly dissipating. At this time VFR conditions
prevail at all TAF sites with some SCT to BKN high clouds, but
the formation of some pockets of stratus are noted. Confidence
remains highest for potential ceiling restrictions at AGS/DNL
but confidence has increased some at OGB as some stratus is
forming just south of the terminal at this time. The main window
for these MVFR to IFR restrictions will be from 09z until
around 14z, before brief MVFR ceilings are expected until around
15-16z. The rest of the period then sees SCT cumulus and high
clouds with southwesterly winds that pick up after 15z to around
10 kts with possible gusts toward 15-18 kts. Another afternoon
with convection mainly after 17-20z is expected, though there is
a little more uncertainty in coverage and thus a PROB30 is in
the TAF for each site. Toward the end of the period, winds
become light out of the southwest to south with VFR conditions
continuing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions are possible
each afternoon/evening early next week with typical summertime
convection. Patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause
some restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$