Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
040 FXUS62 KCAE 130454 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1254 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Gradual improvement from west to east is expected today as the coastal low near the North Carolina-South Carolina border moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air. High pressure will hold on through Wednesday. A reinforcing cool front will move through Wednesday night, with temperatures several degrees cooler behind the front. Another front may approach late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Rain will taper off with clearing skies from west to east. Early this morning, the coastal low will move off of the NC coastline and begin to lift away from the region. This will allow drier air to move into the forecast area as rainfall tapers off. Lingering low level moisture may keep in some cloud cover through the morning but skies are generally expected start clearing up from west to east. With moist soils and remaining low level moisture patchy fog will be possible as skies start to clear. However decent low-level mixing should prevent widespread fog. As the coupled upper level trough and coastal low pull away from the region, NW flow will filter dry air into the forecast area. Clouds will continue to decrease through the day with just a few cumulus and thin high clouds expected through the day. Mostly clear skies and downslope flow will push highs back up to near normal values in the low 80s in the CSRA to mid 70s east where clouds may hold on longer. Models are typically too cool in diabatic downslope situations so NBM forecast highs may be too cool. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Drying out with sunshine returning. High pressure will stretch from the Great Lakes into the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday, providing mild and dry conditions. A dry cool front will move through Wednesday night, bringing a few clouds but no rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Slight cool down for the second half of the week - Next front approaches on Sunday A surge of somewhat cooler air will move in from the north behind a cold front, with temperatures about 5 degrees cooler on Thursday. With the surface ridge right over the area Thursday night, clear skies, and light drainage winds, overnight temps should run as much as 10 degrees below normal. Temps will then begin to moderate for Friday and especially Saturday, before another cold front approaches late in the weekend. Plenty of uncertainty on timing this far out, however. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Improving conditions this morning, then VFR through 06Z Tuesday. The coastal low will lift out of the forecast area during the period. Rainfall has drastically tapered off with just a few lingering sprinkles that are unlikely to cause vis restrictions. Despite rainfall moving out of the region, there may be ceiling restrictions early Monday morning as low level moisture remains high and clouds clear out from west to east. Sites may experience brief periods of MVFR cigs through 15Z. A 25 kt LLJ should hinder fog development but patchy fog may still occur as cloud cover clears. Winds will generally remain out of the N/NE through the 24 hour period from 4 to 9 kts. VFR conditions are likely through Monday as skies clear and drier after filters into the region. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR likely through the rest of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$