891
FXUS62 KCAE 200008
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
708 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead
of the next system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday with a cold front before high pressure returns for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Early morning fog possible

A weak cold front will sag into the forecast area through the
near term. With limited moisture and stable conditions, shower
chances are low but we can`t rule out a stray, light shower. In
addition, some moisture pooling in the CSRA could produce
pockets of fog early tomorrow morning. The HRRR and LAMP have
been persistent showing potential for fog, favoring the CSRA
which will be near or just south of the front. Despite the cold
front moving through tonight, temperatures remain mild across
the area, with lows likely in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler behind front Thursday before near record highs are
  possible Friday.

- Rain chances increase late Friday night.

Thursday and Thursday Night: The backdoor front will be through
the area Thursday, turning flow out of the northeast and
bringing slightly cooler conditions with highs in the mid to
upper 70s expected. PWAT`s should remain above 0.75" through the
day with increased cloud cover expected, but dry conditions
should prevail as the upper ridge moves overhead with a
shortwave approaching the Southern Plains. Overnight, mostly to
partly cloudy skies will limit radiational cooling as lows keep
toward the low to mid 50s.

Friday and Friday Night: On Friday the upper ridge will become
increasingly suppressed as the shortwave now moves closer to the
Mississippi Valley through the day. Low level flow will turn
out of the southwest and moisture will increase to near 1.25"
through the day with moderate warm advection aiding in bringing
temperatures toward the upper 70s to lower 80s despite increased
cloud cover. Afternoon highs could near record values where the
record value at CAE is 81F and 82F at AGS. Continued moisture
advection and the approaching shortwave could bring isolated
rain showers late Friday night, but the better chances hold off
until Saturday morning. Overnight lows should be mild with high
low level moisture and mostly cloudy skies, in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Next system passes Saturday with isolated to scattered rain
  chances the first half of the day.

- Dry and warm conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Another system moves in by Tuesday with another chance for
  rain.

A flip-flop with deterministic guidance continues for the
evolution of the shortwave expected to pass through the region
on Saturday. The 12z GFS pulls the bulk of forcing from this
north of the FA while the ECMWF, NAM, and Canadian have the
southern periphery of it scraping the FA. The signal for strong
925-850mb moisture transport is apparent across model runs as
PWAT`s may rise further to just shy of 1.50" (above the NAEFS
90th percentile) Saturday morning ahead of a cold front.
Overall, this is expected to lead to isolated to scattered
shower chances the first half of Saturday where a couple storms
can not be ruled out. Drier conditions are expected behind the
front Saturday night as an upper ridge and surface high pressure
fill back in. Temperatures are a bit tricky Saturday with
blended guidance pushing the upper 70s to low 80s again, but
increased cloud cover and rain chances that could linger into
the afternoon may keep temperatures a bit lower.

The upper ridge behind Saturday`s system should dominate Sunday
and Monday with cooler temperatures (still just above normal)
and dry conditions, though PWAT`s should still be over 0.50"
each day. A more potent shortwave is progged to eject out of the
Southern Plains Tuesday and into Wednesday, which brings
another potential for at least isolated rain chances each day.
Spread amongst global models on the track of the shortwave is
fairly large at the moment so confidence is not particularly
high in greater than slight chance PoP`s right now.
Temperatures near normal are expected into the midweek at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog and low clouds possible at Augusta terminals Thursday
morning.

A cold front will move in from the northeast with models
indicating it will hang up near the Savannah River. Behind the
front some drier air will push in which will limit the potential
for low clouds and visibility restrictions at the Columbia and
Orangeburg terminals. Have kept conditions VFR there as a
result. At Augusta terminals, however, guidance is consistent in
IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility. Restrictions likely linger
beyond sunrise before low clouds and fog mix out. Drier air
moves in late morning and afternoon Thursday with VFR conditions
expected. Winds will be mostly light, around 5 knots or less generally
out of the N/NE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through
most of the week with dry air in place. Increasing moisture
Friday night into Saturday will lead to chances for rain and
possible restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$