Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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698
FXUS62 KCAE 141023
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
623 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorms to start the week
with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down,
leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances
during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge should then build
in from the east to end the week with slowly warming
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continue
- Scattered afternoon storms

Derived satellite data shows a gradient in atmospheric moisture
over the forecast area this morning, similar to the previous
day. PWAT values are up to 2 inches near the coast with the
western Midlands and Piedmont ranging from 1.6 to 1.7. CAMs
initiate convection along this gradient in the afternoon,
generally favoring the I-20 corridor and east where moisture is
deeper. Pulse type convection will yield a seasonal risk of
localized downburst winds and heavy rain. With a very weak wind
field storm motion will be slow which may lead to an isolated
flood threat, mainly over urban areas.

It will be another hot day with temperatures into the low to mid
90s. Drier air in the western Midlands will mix dewpoints into
the mid 60s. Convection to the east where moisture is higher
should hinder higher temps. So Heat Advisory Criteria is not
likely. Storms will subside with loss of daytime heating and
patchy fog will be possible again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Not as hot with scattered afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms.

Upper ridging weakens during the period as an area of low
pressure moves across Florida and into the northern Gulf. At the
surface, strengthening Bermuda high pressure will continue to
advect high moisture into the region. With weaker heights
aloft, expect daytime temperatures to be closer to seasonal
values for mid-July. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible both days, with slightly higher probabilities on
Wednesday as a weakening cold front tries to move in from the
north and west. Any thunderstorm has the potential to become
strong to marginally severe with downburst winds, small hail,
and heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A new ridge builds in from the east, passing overhead and then
  eventually to the west resulting in warmer temperatures once
  again.

A new upper ridge builds into the Southeastern US late this
week, passing overhead Friday or Friday night. Meanwhile, the
Bermuda high will continue to advect a warm, moist air mass into
the region. This should result in gradually warming
temperatures, peaking this weekend, with lower chances of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. One positive aspect
of this pattern is that the low pressure in the northern Gulf,
being monitored by the NHC for possible development, should
continue westward away from the CWA. Near the end of the
extended cooler and wetter conditions are possible as the ridge
axis moves into the Deep South.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours

Early this morning, light winds and abundant low level moisture
could allow for stratus or fog to develop in the eastern
portions of the forecast area. The HRRR and LAMP guidance
indicates some potential for patchy restrictions also focused in
the eastern FA. Continued a TEMPO group at OGB which appears to
be the most likely to experience some brief vsby/cig
restrictions through 13Z. Restrictions at the other sites are
possible but less likely.

Expect light winds through the day with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms developing. Winds should generally be out of the
SE but may be variable for large portions of the day. With
scattered storms expected we elected to include a PROB30 group
to indicate the potential for convective restrictions and
possibly gusty winds. Winds will become light in the evening as
daytime convection fizzles.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early
morning fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$