231
FXUS62 KCAE 101046
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
646 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, drier and breezy conditions expected into Friday with a
Lake Wind Advisory in effect through the day. Coastal low
develops this weekend with continued breezy conditions but
mostly dry weather remains expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Coastal low develops offshore keeping breezy conditions and
  increased chance of rain across the eastern Midlands

Morning analysis reveals mostly clear skies across the forecast
area with high pressure centered over New England ridging into
the Carolinas. A strong moisture gradient exists along the coast
with PWATs ranging from a half inch over the northern Midlands
to around 1.5 inches just offshore. Persistent northeasterly
winds should increase to around 10 to 15 mph after sunrise and
wind gusts are expected over 20 mph with deep mixing expected to
bring down a strong low level jet. Lake Wind Advisory continues
until Friday morning. Satellite imagery shows some
stratocumulus clouds forming over the Coastal Plain and these
clouds should push westward into the Midlands as low level flow
above the surface becomes a bit more easterly through the day.
Hi-res guidance suggests some isolated to scattered showers
along the coast may push westward into the eastern Midlands this
afternoon and tonight. While some showers are possible no
significant rainfall is expected. Temperatures today should be a
bit cooler than yesterday with increased cloud cover and
continued weak cool advection with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Winds expected to stay up overnight along with plenty
of clouds should prevent ideal radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and breezy through the weekend with chances for showers
  in the east.

Surface low will be off the coast of Florida Saturday morning and
continue to move northeast. This will lead to continued breezy
northeasterly winds across the forecast area. Models are consistent
in an upper low near the CSRA which will allow deeper moisture to
penetrate inland. Blended guidance has continued to trend higher
with pops in the eastern portion of the forecast area with scattered
showers that will weaken as they move from east to west. With the
increased clouds and precip chances, along with northeasterly winds,
cooler conditions will continue with highs in the mid 70s in the
western area to around 70 in the east. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

As the surface low pushes to the northeast Sunday, chances for rain
will decrease with winds not quite as breezy. Decreasing clouds
along with upper ridging from the central US beginning to push into
the area will lead to temperatures moderating with highs generally
in the mid 70s. A bit cooler Sunday night with clearing skies and
a less mixed boundary layer as winds decrease.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming to above average with dry weather.

Upper ridge over Texas will be the dominant synoptic feature
through the long term with our area expected to remain on the
eastern edge of this upper ridge. Blended guidance favors highs
rising to above average through the middle of next week,
although ensemble situation awareness tables do not show a
particularly anomalously warm air mass over the region. While
model consensus shows dry weather through next week, the area
will be in northwest flow on the eastern edge of the upper ridge
which will along with near normal moisture values will lead to
at least a low possibility of a weak system passing to the north
to trend southward into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A period of MVFR conditions in stratocumulus expected this
morning into early afternoon.

As the coastal low develops low level flow above the boundary
layer shifts more easterly and most guidance suggests a period
of MVFR cigs impacting terminals 12z-20z time frame. High
pressure continues to ridge into the region from the Mid
Atlantic with breezy northeasterly winds. A developing low
pressure system off the coast today will result in a
strengthening pressure gradient and northeast winds expected to
increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through the day.
Wind gusts should subside a bit by late afternoon into evening
hours but will still remain up with a strong low level jet. Some
isolated showers are possible especially across the eastern
Midlands and could affect terminals, most likely OGB, but no
significant restrictions expected at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Possible restrictions in
stratocumulus clouds associated with a coastal low Saturday.
Gusty NE winds are expected again on Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$