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FXUS62 KCAE 230804
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of
next week. Heat Advisories may be possible from Monday through
Wednesday. Expect scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms for much of the short and long term forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGE:

- Heat continues to build today with max heat indices between
  100-105F.

Gradual warming continues into today with models indicating 850mb
temperatures a couple degrees warmer. As a result, expect highs a
bit warmer today, in the mid-90s. Winds aloft a bit stronger,
especially in the western portion of the area, which should lead to
deeper mixing with dew points at the surface dropping a bit but
still remaining humid across the area. The resulting heat index will
top out between 100 and 105F today, a bit below heat advisory
criteria. Shower and storm chances expected to be more limited than
yesterday with water vapor imagery this morning showing a layer of
dry air aloft. Forcing will be limited as well. HiRes guidance
indicates weak to moderate instability will develop, however, into
the afternoon and evening, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible, although coverage will be limited. A front tonight will
drop in from the northwest which will keep temperatures up overnight
as winds remain out of the SW ahead of the front along with
increased cloud coverage. Lows will be in the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat building into Monday
- Afternoon/Evening showers and thunderstorms will remain widely
  scattered with best chances in the east

Upper level trough over the northeast amplifies a bit across the
Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas. A weak short wave trough will
move through in the morning along with an axis of higher
precipitable water. Models suggest a few showers upstream in the
morning will weaken as they move southeast into the area. A weak
"cold front"/trough moves into the area during the day and it
appears to hang up near Columbia. 1000-500mb thickness actually
increases in the afternoon so not much air mass change, although
slightly drier air will filter into the SC Piedmont and north
Midlands in the afternoon by weak to moderate downslope flow.
Higher precipitable water values in the coastal plain in the
afternoon and expect precipitable water around 1.6 to 1.7 inches
in the east Midlands. With strong diabatic heating and
instability expected to be weak to moderate in the east
Midlands with CAPE 1000-2000 J/kg but continued dry air above
3km limiting factor. Mid level capping stronger in the west.
Lift strongest in the east possibly enhanced by sea breeze and
approaching front/trough. So chance pops east and slight chance
west in line with NBM mean pops. Temperatures quite hot with
downslope but a little drier in the central and west with NBM
and Mos dew points in the mid 60s in the afternoon with mixing.
High temps in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. This results
in a max heat index around 105 degrees. If its a little more
moist values will be near heat advisory criterion of 108
degrees. Either way a hot day and dependent on shower and
thunderstorm development. SPC has I-95 corridor in a marginal
risk severe thunderstorms. Shear increases but not very
strong...may be 20-35 kts deep shear. Inverted V sounding
possible with deep mixed layer so pulse storms with damaging
wind main threat. Any convection should diminish in the evening
and low temps in the low 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot even by local standards Tuesday and Wednesday
- Best chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday.

High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.S. during the middle
of next week. The air mass appears drier on Tuesday. An upper
level trough passes well to the north of the region in the
Wednesday to Thursday time frame which pushes a surface front
into the Carolinas. There is a good probability that this front
becomes diffuse over the region given the late June climatology
and the ensemble forecasts. Thursday appears to be the most
likely day to experience a higher chance of diurnal convection
due to this diffuse frontal boundary. Otherwise isolated to
scattered diurnal convection is anticipated through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are once again expected during the early morning
and sunrise hours Sunday.

Low ceilings have developed along the coast and will continue to
moves inland over the next several hours. Current observations
indicate ceilings are mostly MVFR. As a result have continued to
bring in MVFR ceilings at all terminals over the next couple
hours. There remains a possibility of brief IFR ceilings but
based on model trends and current observations, think that the
probability is low. Low clouds will scour out after sunrise with
cumulus field developing around 5kft. Winds will generally be
lighter today out of the SSW around 5 knots. Showers and
thunderstorm coverage will be isolated this afternoon, so left
out any mention from TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Monday through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$