Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
068 FXUS62 KCAE 180202 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1002 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place through mid-week. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening. A cold front is slated to move into the forecast area late Thursday into Thursday night then stall across the region. Upper ridging then builds in late this week and into the weekend as temperatures continue to warm though the chance of rain remains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will steadily weaken this evening. A classic hybrid-pulse day unfolded this afternoon with a strong cold pool organizing along a ribbon of strong instability and enhanced DCAPE. These storms should weaken quickly after 10pm as instability lifts but some strong wind gusts will remain possible for the next few hours. As of 10pm, a severe thunderstorm are no longer in effect for the area but an SPS for up to 50 mph winds continues. Some sea breeze interaction storms continue in the eastern Midlands as well, but should remain well below severe limits. Storms should clear the entire by midnight or so, with some fog-stratus possible in the morning given the rain. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Hot, humid, and mainly dry on Wednesday. - An approaching cold front brings the threat of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. A few thunderstorms may become strong, especially in the Pee Dee. Bermuda high pressure continues to drive the weather on Wednesday. Expect another hot and humid day with daytime temperatures in the lower 90s. Latest guidance shows a mainly dry forecast with only a low, less than 20 percent, chance for measurable precipitation in the afternoon and evening focused towards the Upstate where the better upper forcing is, and towards the coast where the sea breeze may support isolated convection. Any showers and thunderstorms that do manage to develop should dissipate quickly with the loss of daytime heating. The situation on Thursday will be different as an upper trough passes to our north and an attendant cold front moves into the FA late Thursday and into Thursday night. The SPC Day 3 SWO places the entire CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather with a Slight (2/5) risk just to our north. Modeled soundings continue to support the potential for damaging wind gusts with an inverted-V sounding and ample CAPE. The sounding for CLT shows higher wind shear than yesterday indicating that a few thunderstorms may become strong, especially for the counties in the northern Midlands. The wind shear at CAE and AGS is lower supporting the lower severe threat across the remainder of the forecast area. Rain chances should diminish from northwest to southeast but may hold on through the night south and east of I-20 as the frontal boundary slows down. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Stalled frontal boundary brings daily chances Friday and into the weekend. - Temperatures gradually increase through the extended as strong upper ridging moves overhead. Will need to monitor for potential heat products early next week. The cold front is expected to stall across the region on Friday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Sunday. Rain chances should be highest wherever the frontal boundary is located. An anomalously strong upper ridge to the west settles overhead on Sunday, resulting in a gradual rise in temperatures through the period. Early next week is expected to be hot and humid and mainly dry, with heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Storms impacting CAE, CUB, and OGB. VFR TAFs are expected after the storms diminish tonight. Mix of restrictions as storms roll through this evening at CAE, CUB, and OGB with gusty winds, thunder, and IFR vsby. These should clear the area by 03z with limited impacts expected after that point. Some patchy fog-stratus is possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall tonight. However, this should remain isolated across the area. Rinse and repeat tomorrow, with isolated to scattered storms developing in the afternoon hours again. Winds are expected to bump up mid-morning as the low- level jet mixes down to the surface. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely through the extended. Convective coverage will also be low through the week but restrictions from storms are most likely Thursday ahead of an approaching front. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...