684
FXUS62 KCAE 230008
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
808 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to widespread showers and storms this evening and
Saturday with the potential for heavy rain and localized flash
flooding. Cooler temperatures area also expected overnight and
tomorrow due to developing upper troughing. Shower and storm
chances then begin to diminish beginning Sunday. After a brief
warm up to start the week, drier and cooler air pushes into the
region for the rest of the week after the passage of a cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Heavy rainfall steadily pushing south and east of the forecast
  area. Flood Watch continues, but is mainly focused for
  Saturday now.

- Some scattered showers remain possible throughout the
  evening, mainly south of I-20.

The slow moving front that has brought widespread heavy rain and
flooding in the coastal plain and CSRA today is slowly sagging
south with a notable PWAT gradient in place across our area from
north to south. With PWAT`s falling below 2.0", shower activity
is generally subsiding as of 8pm across the Midlands, with some
heavier showers lingering in the CSRA. In general, the loss of
diurnal heating and the best mesoscale forcing along the front
should continue to weaken shower activity for our area; WOFS
guidance supports this, with low probabilities of greater than
0.5" moving forward this evening. With both surface based and
elevated instability now less than 1000 j/kg for most of SC and
eastern GA, lightning and thunderstorm activity is quickly
waning even in the stronger showers. Some scattered showers will
likely continue throughout much of the evening across the low
country of SC and southeastern GA, so a few of these could swing
through the CSRA and especially Burke county.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Heavy rain threat continues for Saturday with potential for flash
  flooding in the CSRA to central Midlands.
- Cold front on Sunday with scattered showers and storms still
  possible.
- Drier air finally enters the region on Monday behind the front.

Saturday: Surface boundary will still be situated near the forecast
area through the day.  The airmass will remain very moist, with pwat
values still above 2 inches. With all that moisture, an expected
shortwave aloft moving through, and a possible weak surface low
moving along the front, there is a threat for heavy rain with
potential for flash flooding across a good portion of the forecast
area. The highest chances for this on Saturday continue to be in the
lower CSRA into the southern Midlands, although even the central
Midlands could still see some periods of heavy rainfall.  Due to
this, a Flash Flood Watch continues through the day Saturday for the
entire CSRA and a good portion of the central Midlands.  With the
rain and likely cloud cover, temperatures may struggle to get into
the lower 80s.

Sunday: This is the day that larger scale changes finally begin to
take effect across the forecast area. Strong upper level trough
moving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes is forecast to
phase with the shortwave trough over the Southeast on Sunday.  This
will aid in pushing a cold front into the region, and beginning the
process of moving the very moist and humid airmass that we have been
dealing with the past several days out of the area.  Should still
have one more afternoon of seeing some scattered showers and storms
as the front moves through.  Instability not impressive at this
time, so not expecting anything severe.   In addition, temperatures
are forecast to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dry but still warm Monday just behind the cold front.
- Continued drier and even cooler temperatures Tuesday
  through Friday.

As the cold front moves east on Monday, the moisture is still
expected to linger near the surface just a little longer.
Temperatures still on the warmer side too, with highs up in the
upper 80s still possible as northwesterly downsloping winds aid and
a good amount of sunshine will aid in warming.  Dont worry though,
the drier airmass and cooler temperatures will be on the way by
Tuesday as deeper dry air moves in and winds turn more northerly.
Refreshing conditions Tuesday through Thursday as afternoon highs
only expected to reach into the lower 80s, and combined with the
drier air, you may begin to finally believe that the heat and
humidity of summer is that much closer to being at an end. While we
can surely expect a return to summerlike heat and humidity as some
point, enjoy what this upcoming week has to offer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low Ceilings Continue through Tonight.....

MVFR ceilings continue at the terminals this evening with
heights around 1500 feet. AGS/DNL have periodically reported SCT
decks but the trend is for clouds to thicken and lower into the
overnight with IFR and potentially brief periods of LIFR
ceilings possible towards daybreak at OGB/AGS/DNL. Ceilings
should remain mostly MVFR at CAE/CUB with brief dips into IFR.
In terms of precipitation, scattered showers continue to pass
near/over the terminals, especially AGS/DNL, but this activity
should continue to wind down. Showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are expected again at OGB/AGS/DNL where VCSH has
been added to the TAFs. Confidence is lower at CAE/CUB at this
time. While ceilings should show some improvement after
daybreak, the potential for restrictions due to heavy rainfall
remains possible into Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A drier air mass will arrive behind
a cold front on Monday, likely putting an end to restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for SCZ018-020-025>028-
     030-031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$