669
FXUS62 KCAE 141016
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
616 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place through Wednesday before a
reinforcing dry cold front moves through Wednesday night, with
temperatures several degrees cooler behind the boundary. Another
front may approach late in the weekend, bringing the next chance
for rainfall along with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Sunny, dry, and quiet weather expected

Quiet weather is ongoing currently and is forecast to continue
across the area through the day today. The upper level pattern
remains amplified across the CONUS, with our departing
nor`easter/coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and a strong
mid/upper level low pushing into central California. This is having
an amplifying impact on downstream ridging to our west, with heights
forecast to rise across the region today. Dry air is in place,
with even drier air forecast to shift into the area late this
morning and into this afternoon. PWs currently (per GOES
imagery) are around 1"- 1.1" but upstream they`re around 0.75".
These will push into the region given uniform northwesterly
flow above 500 hPa this afternoon amongst guidance. REFS
forecast soundings this afternoon show a setup for dry and sunny
weather, with strong mid-level subsidence associated with the
rising heights. 850 hPa temps look to be around 12C, which
should yield highs in the low 80s for many, give or take a
degree or two. Tonight, temps are likely to fall a bit given the
dry airmass in place. Look for lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry cold front passes Wednesday night.
- Temperatures cool back down below normal behind the front
  Thursday.

A dry cold front will be moving southward from the Ohio River
Valley region to start off the day Wednesday. This front is not
expected to be pushing into the forecast area until Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. This means that Wednesday will be
another warm day with plenty of sunshine ahead of the front.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
The front moves through late Wednesday night, with the primary
change being slightly cooler temperatures Thursday into Thursday
night. Airmass remains dry, so no rainfall expected through the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cooler to end the week.
- Cold front approaches this weekend.
- Next chance for rainfall expected Sunday ahead of this front.

With dry high pressure still in control on Friday, one more
cooler than normal day is expected. Moving into the weekend,
winds will begin to turn more southerly as ridging moves off to
the east of the region into Saturday. Upper trough moving
through the central U.S. will be pushing another cold front
eastward through the weekend. Low level winds turn more
southerly, bringing some moisture back into the area ahead of
the front. With good warm advection expected on Saturday,
temperatures will once again rise into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s for most area. Saturday should still remain dry will
no significant forcing expected through the day. Better chance
for rainfall with showers and a few storms should occur on
Sunday ahead of the front. Best dynamics may remain just north
of the area, and instability is not the greatest, so majority of
the precip should remain as showers, with only an isolated storm
possible. The front should push through the area Sunday night
with dry high pressure expected to be building on on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

The biggest problem that has shown up tonight has been the
presence of a stronger than modeled low-level jet. The VAD wind
profile has consistently shown winds of 35 knots or more in the
lower 1kft of the profile. As such, have added a LLWS group at
all sites through mid-morning to account for this. It should mix
out pretty quickly once the sun comes up but right now its the
only real aviation impact that is out there. Patchy & periodic
ground fog has taken AGS and OGB to IFR at times but that has
really been periodic at best. As we get into the rest of the
period, expect VFR conditions with winds 5-10 knots out of the
north this morning. Wouldn`t be surprised to see an hour or two
where we get gusty because of the strength of the LLJ but this
shouldn`t last more than a couple of hours. The bulk of the
period should be VFR with little aviation impacts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions continue through
Friday. A dry front will work into the forecast area late
Wednesday or early Thursday shifting winds from N/NW to NE.
Moisture should increase this weekend, ramping up chances for
restrictions and convection ahead of another front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...