788
FXUS62 KCAE 170737
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place
through midweek. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening. A
cold front is slated to move into the forecast area late
Thursday into Thursday night then stall across the region. Upper
ridging then builds in late this week and into the weekend as
temperatures continue to warm though the chance of rain remains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon

An upper trough over the Mississippi River shifts slightly
eastward today but ridging holds in place over the forecast
area. Shortwaves are expected to ride over the ridge today
keeping the most favorable support for convective development
in central GA and the SC Upstate. As daytime heating leads to
destabilization we would expect convection to first develop west
of the forecast area, further from the ridge, but may
potentially impinge on our western FA including the CSRA and
western Midlands by the evening time. Overall convective
coverage today should be isolated to widely scattered with
highest coverage in the western FA. Low level lapse rates are
steep enough to provide an isolated wind threat but the overall
severe threat is low. Highs will be in the lower 90s, combined
with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will result in heat index
values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Not much relief
is anticipated at night with forecast low temperatures in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued hot and humid Wednesday with isolated showers or
  storms possible.

- A cold front moves toward the region Thursday, bringing a
  higher chance for showers and storms late in the day.

Wednesday looks to be another day where the weather is driven by
a Bermuda high as hot and humid conditions persist. As such,
heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees in the
afternoon for most in the forecast area. Much of the model
guidance keeps the area dry Wednesday, but given the amount of
moisture available, decided to keep a low end chance (15%) of
afternoon showers or storms in the forecast. A mid to upper
level trough is then forecast to move toward and over the area
Thursday into Thursday night. An associated cold front is
anticipated to move through, bringing a better forcing mechanism
and resultant increased chances for showers or storms late
Thursday into Thursday night. Overall, not much has changed for
the threat of a stronger storm. While CAPE values appear to be
sufficient for storms, shear is quite low for sustained
updrafts. That said. forecast soundings continue to show an
inverted V profile, suggesting the potential for some stronger
winds, mainly for the northern portions of the forecast area.
The better forcing looks to remain north of the area, likely keeping
the main severe threat north as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Stalled frontal boundary brings daily chances into the
  weekend.

The frontal boundary is forecast to stall out somewhere in the
region as upper ridging replaces the exiting trough. As a
result, chances for diurnal shower and storm activity continue
through the weekend into early next week as we return to a
typical summer pattern. In addition to the continued
precipitation chances, temperatures are forecast to gradually
increase, possibly approaching 100F early next week, in
response to the building ridge overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR more likely than not through the forecast period.

Fog not expected early this morning due to a 15 to 20 knot low-
level jet. Mid-level cloud cover should also work to limit
low stratus development but there may be some areas of MVFR or
IFR cigs around sunrise.

Winds will pick up out of the SW again today but could be a
little stronger than the previous few days. Gusts up to 20
knots in the afternoon will be possible as deep mixing develops.
Wind gusts will diminish in the evening. Convection this
afternoon will be isolated to widely scattered with the greatest
support for storms today remaining west of the TAF sites. We
can`t rule out impacts from thunderstorms but, given the
coverage, chances seem low. Stratus and fog are possible
tonight but SREF probabilities are low and restrictions are not
indicated by MOS or the HRRR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely
through the extended. Convective coverage will also be low
through the week but restrictions from storms are most likely
Thursday ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$