Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
248 FXUS62 KCAE 012334 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 734 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the north keeps relatively dry conditions and below normal temperatures through tomorrow. Dry conditions could continue through Wednesday before low chances for rain may return late Thursday and into the weekend as multiple disturbances pass with a cold front also moving through the region. Warmer conditions are expected for late week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Cool high pressure continues overnight. Surface high pressure remains the main weather driver for tonight, leading to mainly clear skies and cooler than normal temperatures tonight. Temperatures are forecast to drop to the upper 50s to around 60 across the area. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Below normal temperatures initially that become closer to normal Wednesday. - Dry conditions likely prevail. The surface ridge looks to remain in place Tuesday before slowly breaking down into Wednesday, likely bringing two more days with cooler/drier weather. Upper troughing will remain in place Tuesday, before becoming a bit more amplified into Wednesday as an anomalously deep trough digs into the Great Lakes region, reinforcing and even deepening the troughing over the eastern CONUS. This coupled with surface high pressure pushing off the upper East Coast should turn low level winds a bit more out of east to southeast, slightly increasing moisture throughout Wednesday. In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions are expected to prevail, especially Tuesday with the surface ridge remaining in place. Temperatures will also be kept toward the low to mid 80s during the afternoon. For Wednesday, increasing moisture and veering surface winds should bring temperatures up a bit, but still just below normal in the mid 80s. A mid level perturbation should near the region Wednesday and Wednesday night but PWAT`s that remain under 1.5" should aid in keeping the CWA mostly dry with most activity confined toward the upstate. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Deep troughing likely continues into weekend before modifying some. - Temperatures gradually rise to above normal by late week and into weekend. - Low end rain chances to end the week and into weekend. There is decent agreement amongst ensemble guidance that anomalously strong troughing (nearly 2-2.5 standard deviations stronger than normal) in the Great Lakes should drive the troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS. A surface low near northern Lake Superior should also drive a broad cold front across the Ohio Valley initially before approaching the FA toward Friday, with a possible secondary front moving through over the weekend. In general this brings another mostly dry day Thursday, outside of a spotty shower chance, with perhaps slight rain chances to end the week and into the weekend, though confidence remains toward the lower end. Not much moisture increase is being shown in global guidance ahead of this front late Thursday and into Friday with LREF probabilities for PWAT`s greater than 1.5" through Friday evening generally under 50%. As the front (and possible secondary feature) work through the region over the weekend, upper troughing is expected to weaken some, allowing slight height rises by Sunday and into the early week, perhaps bringing a bit more seasonal rain chances. In terms of temperatures a general warming trend is expected, especially by the weekend where a return to above normal temperatures seems likely. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Dry air remains over the region through the period as high pressure continues to dominate in the near term. Light northeast winds overnight will pick up to around 7 to 10 knots by 15z Tuesday. Cannot rule out some gusts to around 15 to 20 knots when the inversion breaks mid morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible on Thursday as a front brings some showers-storms to parts of the area. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$