657
FXUS62 KCAE 040013
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
713 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Light rainfall amounts possible late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Light rainfall amounts possible late this week.

An upper level low currently over the Upper Midwest and its
associated cold front currently trailing into the Lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to slowly slide eastward this
week. As the trailing frontal boundary moves into the Deep South
tomorrow the upper low will lift northward rapidly, limiting
moisture advection to the area initially. The frontal boundary
will slow down its eastward progression, helping to keep most of
the shower activity to our west on Wednesday. Overnight on
Wednesday and into Thursday, moisture advection strengthens over
the Southeast as the surface ridge slips further offshore. This
should promote isolated to scattered showers over the area
ahead of the front.

A secondary upper trough will dig into the southern US Thursday
and Friday, which will allow the front to progress further east
before exiting the area Saturday. Weak convergence along the slow
moving front and relatively low IVT values tend to favor only
light rainfall amounts. In general from Thursday morning to
Saturday morning only about 20 to 40 percent of ensemble members
show greater than 0.50 inches of rainfall, favoring the western
and northern FA. After this system pushes through, drier air is
forecast to move back into the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the first half of the night
then restrictions in stratus/fog expected during the predawn
hours.

Easterly low level flow persists and continues to bring
moisture into the region. Scattered VFR clouds expected this
evening but most guidance is in agreement with some MVFR stratus
developing after 08z impacting all terminals during the 09z-15z
time frame. Some indications IFR cigs could develop around 12z
so included a tempo group to handle possible IFR cigs from
10z-14z. Could see some MVFR vsbys in fog as well. A return to
VFR cigs is expected after 16z. Winds should remain around 5
knots or less overnight before picking up to around 8 to 10
knots after 14z with direction shifting more southeasterly.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for rain during
the mid to late week may lead to some lower CIGS or VSBY
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...29/CJR
AVIATION...23