837
FXUS62 KCAE 011019
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
619 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temps continue through daybreak with a Frost Advisory in
effect until 9 AM. Dry conditions continue through Sunday with
shower chances returning Sunday night into Monday. Several days
of dry conditions to follow with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Frost Advisory in effect until 9 am for portions of the area.
- Dry with slightly below average temperatures.

Today and Tonight: Upper trough is over the Upper Midwest is
forecast to dig southward through the day, causing the flow
aloft to become more south-southwesterly as the near term period
progresses. This should allow for an uptick in moisture in the
area, but highs are expected to be similar to Friday. With high
pressure still in place, another quiet day overall is expected.
Another cool night is in store, but it should be slightly warmer
than this morning with the increased moisture in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- An approaching trough will bring widespread rain chances late
Sunday into Monday.

A sharp digging trough will accelerate towards the area as we move
into Sunday, diving out of the TN and Ohio Valley. Despite a fairly
robust reflection at 500-250mb, the trough will remain positively
titled as it approaches the area leading to a relative lack of
synoptic scale forcing via height falls or vort advection. However,
some modest moisture advection, as PWAT`s climb to around 1.0", and
850-700mb warm advection will yield steadily increasing rain chances
as we move through Sunday with scattered isentropic showers
expected. Moving into Monday, guidance has steadily come into better
agreement with respect to the how the trough interacts and begins to
force coastal low development. The trough will become less
positively titled and interact with offshore thermal gradient,
driving the strongest moisture advection to our east and wrapping
some dry down from the northwest. So precip chances should steadily
decrease throughout Monday as the low pushes further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cool and dry conditions expected through the rest of the week.

Broad ridging and surface high pressure will build in for the rest
of the week behind the trough from Monday. Given the strength of the
ridging and relatively high heights building in, not expecting too
many frost chances despite the surface high overhead and what would
otherwise be good radiational cooling setups. The NAEFS summarizes
the rest of the week well with near average parameters across the
board, except for some elevated heights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

High pressure will lead to mainly clear skies through much of
the day with just some high clouds moving into the area after
about 00z. Winds increase to around 5-8 kts after 15z for
several hours before diminishing again after 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions looks to be late Sunday and early next week as
another front approaches.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>028-030-035-115-116.
GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$