Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
126 FXUS62 KCAE 140236 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1036 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern continues into the weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Late this weekend and next week we will transition to a more typical summertime pattern with scattered to isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will rise next week with Heat Index values above 100 degrees. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Widespread heavy downpours continue in the Midlands. Flash flooding continues, mainly in Richland and Sumter counties this evening, with a band of slow moving showers pivoting through. Enough elevated instability and PWAT`s near 2.0" are setting a perfect recipe for impressive rates given the weak forcing and flow. The flash flood threat will continue for Columbia and Richland-Sumter counties through roughly 2am when instability finally washes out. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): - Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue each day. The synoptic pattern will favor a somewhat elevated risk for showers/tstms through Monday with the region pinned between subtropical high pressure centered offshore of the Southeast U.S. and a mid-level weakness near the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous showers/tstms will be at their greatest coverage and intensity during the afternoon and early evening hours with a potential for some activity to linger into the overnights given the warm and humid airmass that is in place. Moderate to locally strong instability will support a risk for a few strong to marginally severe tstms each afternoon with damaging winds, small hail, locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. The risk for an isolated severe tstm will be highest where updrafts can become locally enhanced near mesoscale boundary collisions. Highs will warm into the 90s each afternoon with early morning lows cooling in the 70s. It will certainly be hot and humid with afternoon heat indices peaking 100-107, which is below the 108 criteria for a Heat Advisory. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Seasonable weather in the long term with daily t-storm chances - Heat index values approaching or exceeding 100F next week The subtropical ridge off the Southeast U.S. coast will build west and intensify through much of next week as a hot and humid airmass remains in place. The ridge could limit the convective coverage for much of the period, although it remains to be seen this far out in time if the capping inversion noted on some guidance will be sufficient to completely curtail convection. Pops were held closely to the 13/13z NBM (mainly chance category) until confidence on how the building ridge will impact the daily thermodynamic profile increases. Afternoon highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s each afternoon with overnight lows only cooling into the 70s. Localized heat indices could get close to the 108 Heat Advisory thresholds at times, so Heat Advisories could be needed at some point if advisory conditions become a bit more widespread. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered convection continues to impact several of the terminals to start the forecast period so included a tempo for restrictions in -TSRA for a few hours until storms wane with the loss of instability later this evening. Generally VFR conditions outside of convection with light southwesterly winds into the overnight hours. Scattered to broken VFR cigs with plenty of debris clouds around through much of the night. There is an expectation that some stratus will reform again during the predawn hours and possibly continue into mid morning with abundant low level moisture in place, especially in areas that received rain. Restrictions time frame should be 09z-15z or so then VFR conditions expected to return with southwesterly winds increasing to around 8 to 10 knots by mid morning. Another round of afternoon scattered convection is expected. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions are possible each afternoon/evening into early next week with typical summertime convection. Patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...