981
FXUS62 KCAE 151650
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1250 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. A backdoor front will usher in drier and slightly cooler
  air through the middle to end of this week.

- 2. Increasing moisture and rain chances by the end of the
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A backdoor front will usher in drier and
slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

Confidence remains high in the pattern over the next several
days. Extreme 500 hPa ridge remains settled over the
southeastern US, with NAEFS and LREF 500 hPa heights at the
100th percentile for this time of year. Despite this, our
weather looks quite pleasant through Friday owing to a backdoor
front that moved through last night. Highs look closer to
normal- in the upper 80s and lower 90s - over the next few days
but the humidity will be the major story. Below normal PWs,
plentiful sunshine, and subsidence aloft will result in fairly
robust mixing of the dry airmass across the central Carolinas.
Afternoon dewpoints Wed/Thur are expected to fall into the 50s,
and this dry airmass will foster lows each morning in the 60s!
It will be a brief reprieve but a well deserved one nonetheless.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing moisture and rain chances by the end
of the weekend into early next week.

The persistent upper-level ridge begins to break down by the
weekend as a cold front approaches the forecast area from north
Saturday. A weak inverted upper trough is forecast to retrograde
beneath the upper ridge and into the northern Gulf by the
weekend. The combination of these two things will lead to an
increase in southerly/southwesterly flow, with LREF members all
showing 75th-85th percentile PWs arriving back in the area by
Sunday and Monday. The inverted trough is likely to slowly lift
northeastward early next week along with a southeastward moving
cold front leading to unsettled weather likely to return as a
result.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR cigs to linger into early this afternoon across parts of
the area.

Backdoor front has pushed through the region, bringing a broad
stratus deck with cigs dipping to MVFR for most of the morning.
The stratus will steadily burn off throughout the afternoon
before lifting to VFR at all sites. Winds will remain generally
out of the east, with some gusts 12-15 knots expected. Light
winds linger overnight along with clearing skies. Drier air
should help mitigate any fog or stratus potential moving into
Wednesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions unlikely for
much of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms
this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...96