Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
112 FXUS62 KCAE 291748 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 148 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and slightly warmer today. Rain chances possible this weekend, with a return of cooler and mostly drier weather expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Below average temperatures today with a mix of sun and clouds. Similar pattern today as the last couple days with upper trough axis over the eastern US with satellite derived PWATs below an inch early this afternoon. While temperatures continue to moderate today, still expecting slightly below average temperatures for today with fair weather and a developing cumulus field that will continue through the afternoon. Moisture gradient has tightened just to the south with a stationary front in southern Georgia. A digging trough to the west of the forecast area today into tonight will allow the flow aloft to transition from NW to WSW. This will lead to deeper moisture advecting into southern portions of the forecast area, although there still remains some uncertainty as to how far north the moisture reaches. Through tonight, however, the probability of precipitation remains very low. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Below normal temperatures continue. - Scattered showers and isolated storms Saturday. Increasing isentropic lift Saturday morning with a shortwave pushing through the area will lead to scattered showers developing near the southern portion of the forecast area. The limiting factor will be how far north the deep moisture can reach into the area. HREF members generally show a large spread in the northward extent. Scattered showers will be most likely in the Central Savannah River Area and areas south of I-20 with lower probabilities the farther north. While an isolated storm remains possible, HREF mean indicates instability will be weak. Showers will begin in the west and then shift to the east and as the shortwave shifts offshore, precip chances expected to decrease into Saturday night. Cooler conditions expected, especially in the CSRA where low clouds and showers will be the most likely with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure pushing into the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the area Sunday. This will lead to decreasing PWATs once again across the area with the trend among ensembles of drier weather for Sunday with GEFS mean PWATs about one standard deviation below normal. Blended guidance as a result has decreased pops for Sunday with most of the area expected to stay dry with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows Sunday night in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Cool weather persists through the long term. - Scattered showers and isolated storms possible by midweek. Ensemble mean 500mb pattern continues to favor troughing over the eastern portion of the US through next week. This will continue to lead to below average temperatures with blended guidance showing limited spread in temperature guidance through at least midweek. By the second half of next week, potential for a few disturbances to drop into the central US and approach the forecast area. This will lead to increasing chances for rain but also likely reinforce the cooler weather for our first meteorological fall, which begins on Labor Day this year. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through tonight with restrictions possible tomorrow morning. Cumulus clouds continue to be the only weather of note for the terminals so far today with generally light and variable winds. Moisture is expected to increase tonight, especially for the Augusta and Orangeburg terminals and by tomorrow morning guidance is trending towards MVFR ceilings develop at the Augusta terminals with less confidence for Orangeburg. Scattered showers will also be possible, although for now have only included them in a prob30 group for the Augusta terminals leading to MVFR visibilities. Instability expected to be weak so thunderstorms appear to be unlikely. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions will be possible during the early morning hours due to stratus or fog through Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$