593
FXUS62 KCAE 160557
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1257 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It`ll be warm and breezy at times today ahead of a dry cold front.
Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming week. The next significant chance for rain arrives late
Friday or Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Breezy, warm, and dry Sunday on tap as a dry cold front
  approaches and pushes through the area.

Quiet weather continues across the area. The pressure gradient
is tightening up across the area in advance of an approaching
cold front, with winds remaining elevated across the area as of
this hour. The winds are strongest near the NC border where the
gradient is tightest, and generally expect this for most of the
night. Not expecting winds to truly get gusty until after
sunrise when low-level mixing increases and encourages the stout
low-level jet overhead to mix out. A Lake Wind Advisory remains
in effect through midday as winds should gust over 25 mph over
the lakes tonight. Similar gusts are expected across the area
tomorrow as this front approaches. Stout southwesterly flow will
yield strong warm advection, and highs are expected to be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s as a result. The front is forecast to
push through the area between 1p and 5p, with dewpoints dropping
fast and perhaps our strongest wind gusts as the front passes
through. Wind should then decrease as we head into tonight and
the surface pressure gradient weakens slowly. Lows overnight are
forecast to be in the upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and very dry conditions on Monday as high pressure
  passes overhead.

The day begins with northwesterly flow behind the passage of the
dry cold front. Winds should become light and variable as
surface high pressure passes overhead. While it will be
noticeably cooler on Monday, highs are forecast to be in the mid
to upper 60s, which is around normal for mid-November. Dewpoints
were decreased due to the very dry air mass that will be in
place resulting in critically low Min RH values between 15 and
25 percent in the afternoon. Having said that, not expecting the
need for fire weather products at this time due to the light
winds during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely drop off
quickly after sunset due to nearly perfect conditions for
radiational cooling. It`ll likely be the coldest night of the
next seven with forecast lows in the upper 30s to around 40
degrees, with mid-30s possible in normally colder and sheltered
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A warming trend is expected during the mid-week with near zero
  chances for rain.

- Temperatures then decrease Friday and into the weekend with
  the next chance of rain arriving Friday night or Saturday.

Upper ridging will be in control of the weather through at least
Friday evening, when the ridge axis is expected to pass
overhead. This will combine with high pressure anchored off the
coast of the Southeastern US to maintain the ongoing dry
conditions with warming temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.
PWATs will gradually recover through the week as surface winds
shift to the southwest allowing for moisture advection from the
gulf. While rain chances remain very low throughout this
period, moisture and cloud cover will increase after Wednesday
and this will have an impact on high temperatures by Friday. A
pattern change is possible Friday night and into the weekend and
a storm system is expected to drag a cold front through the
region late in the extended, though confidence remains low
regarding rainfall potential.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected through the period.

The weather through the period is expected to be dry and clear,
but the TAF period will still have some impacts. A cold front is
expected to approach and pass through the area by the end of
this period. Impacts are already being felt across the area as
a robust low-level jet develops across the area. Latest VAD at
CAE reveals ~45 knots at 2kft, with light surface winds <10
knots. Look for this to continue until the sun rises and we
begin to mix down the low-level jet. And then, we are expecting
20-25 knot gusts through early afternoon out of the southwest
across the area. These should slowly diminish in strength as we
head into the evening and approach the end of this TAF period,
with winds shifting from southwesterly to westerly to
northwesterly by 06z tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into
next week with dry air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$