523
FXUS62 KCAE 161810
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper ridging will continue to break down today, leading
to lower daytime temperatures and scattered shower/storms during
the afternoon and evening. Upper ridging then returns for the
late week and this weekend, bringing warming temperatures,
muggy conditions, and more typical shower/storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon.

Latest radar imagery is showing scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity moving through mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area as moisture advects in from the south. Expect this to continue
for the next few hours with most of the activity staying in the
eastern half of the forecast area. That said, the entire forecast
area has at least a slight chance for showers/storms. Some heavy
downpours are possible with any shower/storm because PWATs are over
2" over most of the forecast area. Much of the hi-res guidance
suggests the activity begins to diminish after about 5 or 6 pm
as an inverted trough associated with a low along the Gulf coast
pivots further westward. Although not expecting the storms
today to be too strong, some gusty winds are possible with the
activity as DCAPE values are forecast to be near 700 J/kg later
this afternoon. A typical night is then in store tonight with
lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms during the afternoon
  expected each day.

Some weak lee side troughing may linger in the region into
Thursday as a low continues across the eastern Gulf. Upper
ridging and surface high pressure will slowly near the Southeast
from the east through the period, likely bringing temperatures
from near normal Thursday to above normal on Friday. 15-20 kts
of southerly to southwesterly low level flow extending up to 700
mb continues each day, aiding in keeping PWAT`s near
1.80-1.95". The lingering surface troughing combined with
nearing convective temps should allow isolated to scattered
convection each afternoon and into the evening with MLCAPE
approaching 1000-1500 J/kg. The 00z HREF members and mean
solution do suggest coverage remaining more on the isolated side
Thursday, and this may repeat again Friday. The more limited
coverage is likely owing to a weak subsidence inversion that is
noted in GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings, possibly aiding in
keeping convection more suppressed. Either way, the risk for
severe weather is low and the aforementioned 15-20 kts of flow
should give any storm that does form around 10 kts of motion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warming temperatures into the weekend with muggy conditions.

- Typical summertime diurnal convection expected.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure should slide into the
FA through the weekend and into early next week where GEFS and
EC Ensemble solutions suggest that PWAT`s are near normal
initially, but then rise to around 120% of normal Sunday through
Tuesday as the upper ridge advects deep Gulf moisture along its
western periphery. With little forcing, typical isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected each
day but the main talking point will be hot/humid conditions as
temperatures above normal are expected under the ridge this
weekend and possibly into early next week. NAEFS 850mb and 700mb
temperatures reach the 90th percentile starting Saturday and at
times, the 97th percentile Sunday and Monday, aiding in
maintaining these hot conditions. The EC EFI depicts values up
to 0.7-0.8 Sunday and Monday with a 0 Shift of Tails contour
into the Midlands, giving more confidence in the signal for
hot/muggy weather. Thus, heat indices between 100-105F will be
possible this weekend and into the early week, highest Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions likely outside of afternoon convection

Scattered showers and storms are being seen on radar over the
eastern portions of the forecast area, with activity likely
near CAE/CUB/OGB at times. So have included a VCTS along with a
tempo group for TSRA at those terminals. Gusty and erratic
winds can be expected near thunderstorm activity along with
brief restrictions possible. Confidence is lower that AGS/DNL
will see activity, so am keeping the PROB30 group for now and
will amend if needed. Generally southerly winds around 7-10 kts
are expected through about 00z before becoming light and
variable into the morning. Winds are then anticipated to be
generally 5-10 kts out of the SW after about 14z. The chances
for early morning stratus or fog are low at this time, so have
not included in the TAF at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
continue with daily convection and patchy early morning
fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$