656
FXUS62 KCAE 142353
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper ridge will begin to break down, leading to lower
daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid
week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the
east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered storms into the evening.
- Muggy conditions overnight.

Scattered showers and storms will begin to dissipate after
sunset this evening across the area with the loss of heating.
Lingering moisture overnight will lead to another somewhat muggy
night across the area. In addition, some patchy fog and low
stratus development will be possible late tonight and towards
morning. Overnight lows mainly ranging between 71-75 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Not as warm due to scattered afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A weakening trough will be approaching Florida with
dry air located on the northwest flank. PWATs drop to less than
1.5", with 2"+ PWATs on either side. Surface convergence from
Monday will have moved further inland over GA on Tuesday. The
lower PWAT air will likely limit convection slightly, but the
overall extent of coverage should still be at least chance. High
temperatures will also be lower on Tuesday as 1000/ 850 mb
thicknesses fall to 1415 m (or about 10 m cooler than Monday)
due to the upper trough.

Wednesday - Thursday: Another trough will break off and approach
the region Wednesday allowing thunderstorms to continue both
days. Storm motions Wednesday are forecast to be around 10 kt,
but increase to near 20 kt by Thursday as the trough moves
overhead and elongates the wind field slightly. This means the
greatest chance for locally heavy rainfall will be on Wednesday,
with slightly lower chances on Thursday due to increased storm
motion. High temperatures will be near climo or in the lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming into the weekend.

The trough that was near the area on Thursday will cross
Florida Saturday keeping afternoon thunderstorm chances in the
forecast through the weekend. High temperatures will also remain
near climo/ slightly above climo as low level thicknesses
slowly recover. Max heat index values each afternoon will be
near or just below advisory criteria (108 F).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions outside of showers/storms this evening and early
tonight. Restrictions to both visibility and ceiling possible
towards sunrise Tuesday.

Isolated showers and storms will continue through sunset this
evening, with greatest coverage along the CSRA taf sites along
the Savannah River. Brief restrictions in showers/storms
possible through 01z, then most activity should begin
dissipating with the loss of heating. Overnight hours should be
mostly dry. VFR conditions should occur through the early
portions of the overnight hours, but with plenty of low-
level moisture around, guidance is showing increasing
probabilities of seeing some low stratus and br development
towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Have trended that direction,
with ceilings developing and dropping below 1kft around 10z,
lasting through 13z before beginning to break and lift back to
vfr by late morning. Winds mostly light and variable to calm
overnight, then increasing to between 5-10 knots out of the
east/southeast through the day Tuesday. As for convection on
Tuesday, coverage expected to be very similar to the past few
days during the afternoon and evening hours once again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early
morning fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$