395
FXUS62 KCAE 200616
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
116 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead
of the next system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday with a cold front before high pressure returns for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Early morning fog possible in the CSRA.

- Cooler behind front today.

A weak dry cold front will sag into the forecast area this morning.
As a result, moisture pooling in the CSRA may produce pockets of fog
between now and daybreak. HRRR, LAMP guidance and the latest NBM
continue to show potential for fog, so confidence is fairly
high. However, it doesn`t appear it will be widespread enough to
require any headlines, but we`ll continue to monitor.

Behind the front, northeast flow will bring slightly cooler
temperatures with highs ranging from the low 70s northeast to the
upper 70s southeast. PWAT`s should slowly increase through the day
and into tonight, but no precip is expected. Skies remain partly to
mostly cloudy through the period. This will also aid to limit
radiational cooling tonight with low temps in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Very warm through Saturday with some showers-storms around
  late Saturday afternoon.

Broad ridging will continue across the region Friday as a deep
cutoff low on the west coast helps linger a quasi-blocking pattern.
This will allow temps to again climb well above average Friday, with
much of the area pushing into the upper 70`s or low 80`s; high temps
Friday will again come close to record highs at both AGS and CAE.
The ridge will begin to flatten out somewhat as we move into
Saturday thanks to a series of weak shortwaves ejecting out of the
western US cutoff low. An accompanying diffuse low pressure system
will quickly drive into the region by the afternoon on Saturday,
with some height falls and increasing southwesterly moisture
advection. This will help drive PWAT`s up to around 1.25" and
actually help develop some elevated instability. So some scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the afternoon across
the area. High temps will again near record highs, climbing into the
low 80`s; EC EFI`s continue to show a pretty classic near-barely
record setting temp of warmth in this pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A return to near average temps following by a steady warmup.
  Rain chances increase by the middle of next week.

Some cool, dry advection will push into the area following
Saturday`s front on Sunday. This will push temps back towards
average with a notable drop in surface moisture and PWAT`s on Sunday
and Monday. The deep cutoff low in the western US will finally
progress east Monday and steadily amplify heights downstream. So
temps will quickly push back well above average by mid-week; EC EFI
reflects the pattern well with anomalous heights and temps quickly.
Rain chances will then increase by mid-late week as the ejecting
cutoff eventually pushed into our region. NAEFS and EC guidance are
generally inconsistent as one would expect for days 6-8, but chances
of broad moisture and a slow moving front look probable.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog and low clouds possible at Augusta terminals this morning.

High clouds will generally be in place across the area through the
period. Calm winds at the surface along with some lingering moisture
should cause VSBYS and CIGS to drop at the AGS/DNL terminals, and
potentially OGB. Guidance has been consistent in IFR/LIFR ceilings
and visibility. A front will bring drier air into CAE/CUB, so
confidence is much lower for any restrictions there this morning.

Restrictions likely linger beyond sunrise before low clouds and fog
mix out. Drier air moves in late morning and afternoon Thursday with
VFR conditions expected. Winds will be mostly light, around 5 knots
or less generally out of the N/NE. Winds return to light and
variable or calm this evening with continued high clouds across the
region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue Friday.
Increasing moisture Friday night into Saturday will lead to chances
for rain and possible restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$