223
FXUS62 KCAE 190003
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
803 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected overnight and into Thursday
morning. A cold front is slated to move into the forecast area
late Thursday into Thursday night before stalling across the
region. Upper ridging returns for the end of this week and into
the weekend as temperatures continue to warm along with
continued chances for showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Outside chance a shower/storm creeps into far eastern Midlands
  over the next couple hours.

- Dry conditions expected overnight.

Scattered convection is seen across southern GA and along the
sea breeze in the Coastal Plain, which is now just south of
Bamberg and Orangeburg counties. There is still nearly 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE across the area, but water vapor imagery depicts
the pocket of drier PWAT`s (around 1.2-1.5") across the FA, and
thus while a couple showers/storms could sneak into the eastern
Midlands over the next couple hours, not much development along
the sea breeze further inland is expected as instability begins
to fall in the coming hours. Overnight, some debris cloudiness
from convection will be possible but the CWA likely remains dry
with overnight lows that fall into the low to mid 70s. Thursday
morning likely remains dry ahead of a trough and cold front that
looks to bring active weather to the region late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- An approaching cold front brings the threat of showers and
  thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. A few of
  these thunderstorms may become strong to severe.

- Slightly cooler and drier on Friday behind the front with a
  few showers and thunderstorms possible near the stalled
  frontal boundary.

Thursday and Thursday Night: An upper-level trough passes to
our north Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front associated
with the trough will move towards the FA late Thursday and into
Thursday night, bringing the threat of strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms. CAMs show a variety of solutions but
modeled soundings continue to support the possibility of at
least isolated convection with CAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range,
steep low-level lapse rates, and an inverted-V signature
suggesting a damaging wind threat. Wind shear is highest across
the north but even the sounding at CLT shows a modest 30 knots
of 0-6km bulk shear at most. The afternoon Day 2 SWO from SPC
maintains a wind driven Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather
across our CWA, with a Slight (2/5) risk to our north across
North Carolina. This assessment seems reasonable given the
modeled environmental conditions and the variability shown in
the CAMs. It`ll be a typical hot and humid day ahead of the cold
front with forecast highs generally in the lower 90s. Latest
guidance shows the front slowly down Thursday night but pushing
through much, if not all, of the CWA by daybreak Friday.
Overnight temperatures fall into the lower to mid 70s.

Friday and Friday Night: The cold front appears to stall near
the coastal plain for Friday with slightly cooler and drier
weather expected across much of the FA on Friday. The best
chance of convection will be along the remnant front and along
the sea breeze. With the upper trough moving out of New England,
the lack of upper level support should limit the severe threat
and thunderstorm coverage. The best chance of measurable
precipitation on Friday will be along and south/east of I-20 and
most locations to the north/west of the interstate should remain
dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Stalled frontal boundary could produce a few isolated showers
  or thunderstorms this weekend, mainly in the coastal plain.

- Temperatures gradually increase through the extended as strong
  upper ridging moves overhead and will need to monitor for
  potential heat products early next week.

The stalled frontal boundary gradually dissipates but may
provide enough lift in the coastal plain to trigger a few
showers or thunderstorms in our southeastern counties. The sea
breeze may further enhance any thunderstorm development but with
strong upper ridging approaching, the overall thunderstorm
threat should decrease this weekend. The ridging will also allow
temperatures to rise into early next week. Heat index values
should increase into the 103 to 108 range with a few locations
approaching criteria for a Heat Advisory. Will need to watch
trends to determine if any heat products will be needed early
next week. Upper ridging will begin to weaken by the middle of
next week with slightly lower temperatures but also slightly
higher PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast
period.

Convection has stayed to our south, west, and north so far
today. This is a nice change of pace from the recent pattern,
largely owed to an area of lower PW air making it difficult for
anything to actually initiate across the area. There is some
convection across southern GA trying to rotate northward on the
western periphery of the surface high. I think it is unlikely
this stuff makes it here as instability should wane with the
setting sun. So some high debris cloudiness is expected
overnight tonight, with winds staying slightly elevated given
another strong low-level jet. A cold front is forecast to
approach tomorrow afternoon and evening. A myriad of solutions
are presented within model guidance. However, a trough,
instability, and a front in June usually lead to numerous
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. So
included VCTS in there tomorrow after 19z as that seems to be
the earliest reasonable time that convection could get going.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the front looks gusty again, with
wind gusts of 18-24 knots expected during the afternoon hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for significant
restrictions will be Thursday afternoon and evening with
convection ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$