156
FXUS62 KCAE 032328
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
628 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of dry weather is expected this week as a
pair of high pressure centers move through the region.
Temperatures will be near to above normal, gradually warming
each day. The next chance of rain holds off until the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Chilly overnight lows under clear skies.

Surface high pressure remains centered off to the west along the
LA/MS border, but drier air is filtering in with PWAT`s around
to just under 0.50". The remainder of the night will see surface
high pressure continuing to near, but still remaining just
west, thus likely not bringing ideal radiational cooling
conditions. A 20-25 kt LLJ is expected to form tonight also,
keeping surface winds light. Clear skies and decent cold
advection though should still allow good cooling to occur with
overnight lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. More
sheltered locations could see patchy frost tonight, but in
general, widespread frost is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Sunny and dry with near normal temperatures Tuesday.
- Patchy frost is possible Tuesday night.
- Warmer, dry and breezy on Wednesday.

Weak ridging will give way to a zonal flow aloft during the
short term period. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will
pass directly overhead Tuesday into Tuesday night, before
shifting into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A dry backdoor
cold front should drop through the area Wednesday night.

Strong subsidence and a very dry column will result in sunny
skies on Tuesday, with veering winds as the high crosses the
area. Ideal radiational cooling conditions appear to set up
Tuesday night with nearly calm winds and clear skies. The
current NBM-based forecast may be a bit too warm given these
conditions, but looking at the NBM 10th percentile, lows could
potentially bottom out in the mid to upper 30s in a reasonable
worst-case scenario for our typically cooler/low-lying
locations. Either way, a freeze does not look likely but
certainly some patchy frost could be expected.

As a southerly return flow becomes established around the
Atlantic high pressure system, temperatures will be on the rise
across the area, aided by some compressional heating ahead of
the boundary. This is a day where some changes to the NBM
forecast are warranted due to potential impacts to fire weather
users. Have bumped up highs to be more consistent with numerical
guidance. This will result in deeper mixing, which will drop
dewpoints and aid in mixing down some stronger winds aloft.
Relative humidity values could now drop as low as 25-30% in some
areas, with winds gusting as high as 20-25 mph at times during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Continued dry with above normal temperatures through at least
  Friday.
- The next chance of rain arrives Friday night.

Ensembles depict a zonal flow aloft on Thursday, then a
southwest flow developing ahead of a deepening trough to the
west on Friday. The upper trough appears to lift north of the
area Friday night and Saturday, with a significantly deeper
trough approaching from the west on Sunday.

Temperatures will continue to rise above normal through Friday,
with rain-free conditions expected. A weak front could pass
through Friday night into early Saturday and if there is
sufficient moisture advection, a few showers could occur. There
remains a large spread in model solutions for Sunday, but
additional showers are possible ahead of the approaching upper
trough and more significant cold front at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs.

As dry high pressure continues to build in, winds will decouple
and become nearly calm over night. There will be a low-level jet
setting up overnight between 1kft-2kft with max winds generally
around 20 knots, so there will be some shear just above the
surface inversion, but not enough for llws overnight. Winds will
pick back up around 14z as the inversion begins to break. Can
not rule out a brief wind gust or two above 10 knots as it
breaks, but winds will quickly settle back to around 5-7 knots
for much of the day before becoming light and variable again
towards sunset Tuesday. As for restrictions, clear skies on tap
with a very dry airmass. Can not completely rule out some patchy
ground fog close to the warmer river late tonight at both ags/ogb,
but it would be brief with very limited impacts, especially with
the low-level jet just off the surface. Thus will keep p6sm at
all taf locations through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns through
late week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$