Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
041 FXUS62 KCAE 151122 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 622 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Near to above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and into much of the upcoming week with low rain chances. The next significant chance for rain arrives late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Dry, warm, and breezy weather is expected across the area today as a dry cold front slowly approaches from the west. Currently, we are underneath clear skies and light winds as a surface high pressure shifts south and eastward across the southeastern US. PWs are way under an inch across the area, only expected to increase late tonight as the front approaches the area. Throughout the day, the weather is expected to be beautiful, if just slightly breezy. Winds will pick up through the day as the pressure gradient increases out ahead of our approaching trough and associated cold front. Expect winds to run in the 20-25 mph range this afternoon. Highs should end up in the mid to upper 70s as southwesterly flow continues to increase through the afternoon. By tonight, with warm advection continuing, a stout inversion is forecast to develop and prevent winds from continuing to be gusty through the night. We may still see the occasional gust up to 20 mph through the night. Lows overnight should be elevated considering winds aren`t expected to be calm, so look for lows generally in the low to mid 50s ahead of the front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Warm and breezy on Sunday with the passage of a dry cold front. - Temperatures return to seasonal values for Monday as high pressure passes overhead. The day will likely begin with breezy southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching dry cold front, especially after the nocturnal inversion breaks. Temperatures ahead of the boundary should warm to well above normal values, with forecast highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours as the front passes through the region. Wind gusts of 20 to 25mph will likely be common on Sunday, higher on area lakes. Winds will diminish Sunday night as high pressure builds in from the west, allowing temperatures to steadily drop with forecast lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Monday should be sunny and dry with lighter winds as the aforementioned surface high passes overhead. Daytime temperatures will be noticeably cooler but still around seasonal values with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures Monday night will be similar to Sunday night due to near perfect conditions for radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Continued dry through much of the extended with slightly above to above normal daytime temperatures. - The next chance for rain arrives on Friday. Global guidance favors upper ridging through much of the long term as any shortwaves pass mainly to the north. High pressure should also be the primary driver of the weather at the surface. This pattern promotes a continuation of dry conditions with slightly above to above normal daytime temperatures. Another dry cold front may pass through during the mid-week period, resulting in a period of breezy winds followed by slightly cooler temperatures the next day. A new storm system develops over the Central CONUS Thursday night into Friday, which may bring a cold front through the FA next the end of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR through the period. High pressure is in place currently and should slowly shift off to the southeast through the day today. The airmass remains dry even for this time of year, with PWs well under 1". So look for clear skies through the period. Winds are forecast to pick up this afternoon, becoming gusty up to 20 knots out of the southwest. By tonight, an inversions should settle in and prevent the strongest gusts from materializing, but winds should remain 7-12 knots through the night. Despite this, we are anticipating a period of LLWS overnight as a robust low-level jet develops ahead of an approaching front. This should be on the order of 40-50 knots, necessitating an inclusion of LLWS in the TAFs after 00z this evening. It will likely remain a problem all night tonight until early to mid morning Sunday when the surface winds increase and we being mixing stronger gusts to the surface. Otherwise, look for a quiet aviation forecast with VFR continuing. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into the weekend with dry air in place. Windy conditions expected Sunday otherwise VFR conditions continue. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...