817
FXUS62 KCAE 301459 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1059 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered light showers remain possible today as
Imelda heads out to sea. Dry, cool conditions likely through
the rest of the week as NE flow strengthens. Rain chances
increase again near the end of the long term as moisture pours
back into the Southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Relatively cool with some isolated to scattered light showers
  through the morning.

Imelda continues its eastward turn away from the coast but the
elevated plume of moisture remains across the Carolinas this
morning. Regional radar shows patches of showers across the
central and eastern Midlands and have adjusted pops upward a bit
to better account for the measurable nature of these showers,
raising pops. Widespread low clouds and precip will keep
temperatures down below normal today with highs expected to be
in the 70s. As Imelda moves away from the region the deeper
moisture is expected to shift east of our area with lowering
PWATs through the day. Showers are expected to diminish through
the afternoon from west to east as upper level flow becomes more
northerly ushering in drier air. A tightening pressure gradient
should result in some gusty winds by afternoon with gusts
around 20 to 25 mph as high pressure builds southward. With the
drier air and diminishing cloud cover, overnight lows are
forecast to be cooler than they have been in recent nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drier air settles into the region Wednesday

The axis of an upper level trough will move out of the
Southeast during the short term as surface high pressure settles
into the Northeast. This will drive a dry air mass into the
forecast area through breezy, NE flow. Gusts during the
afternoon will be around 20 mph. Breezy winds may continue into
the evening especially on the warm area lakes but speeds should
remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. The dry air mass will
prevent rainfall but the driest air won`t reach the forecast
area until overnight with dewpoints dropping in to the low to
mid 50s. Highs will be near normal during the day. Weak cold
advection will allow for temps a couple of degrees below normal
but winds will stay up overnight preventing ideal radiational
cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dry and cool conditions likely this week
- Rain chances increase near the end of the long term

As strong high pressure ridges into the region from the
Northeast mid-week we can expect cool, dry weather through at
least Friday. Mean PWAT values from global ensembles range from
40-80 percent of normal through Friday night favoring dry
weather and below normal lows overnight. Highs expected in the
70s with lows in the 50s.

The pattern should change over the weekend and into early next
week as surface high pressure moves offshore. The spread in
ensemble heights increase in this latter part of the long term,
however in general models favor increasing moisture over the
Southeast through onshore or southerly flow. This will lead to
increased rain chances and favor a warming temperature trend.
Temperatures over the weekend and into early next week will be
near or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions continue with tropical moisture
in place across the region with scattered showers and drizzle.
Vsbys are expected to improve outside of showers and with less
rain chances this afternoon but cigs will be slower to improve
and should lift to MVFR all terminals by 17z then eventually
return to VFR sometime this evening as drier air works into the
region from the north. Breezy north to northeast winds persist
through the TAF period, with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of VFR conditions mid-
week is high with a drier pattern Wednesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$