290
FXUS62 KCAE 210000
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
700 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm stretch continues through the end of the week. Near record
high temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead of the next
system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
with a cold front before high pressure and dry conditions return
for the start of Thanksgiving week. Rain chances then move back
in during the mid week Thanksgiving week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Areas of fog developing tonight, which may become dense.

Lingering low clouds continue in the eastern portion of the
forecast area with broad mid level ridging persisting over the
Southeast. A shortwave is still expected to move along the
northern portion of the ridge, with the showers associated with
this disturbance moving into northern Georgia as of 630pm. The
current trajectory of this activity looks to miss much of the
area to the north but a few showers remain possible in Lancaster
or Chesterfield counties. Rainfall not expected to amount to
much as it is currently producing a few hundredths. Plentiful
low level moisture in place as dew point depressions are already
around 5 degrees this evening. With high pressure at the
surface and a relatively weak low level jet, widespread fog is
likely tonight. Another dense fog advisory will likely be needed
early Friday morning. Lows tonight remain mild, mainly in the
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Near recored temperatures possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and a couple storms possible
  Saturday.

Friday and Friday Night: The upper ridge holds over the area
most of the day Friday before flattening out overnight and into
Saturday in response to a series of shortwaves moving out of the
Southern Plains. Strengthening southwesterly flow will continue
to advect moisture into the area (PWAT`s near 1.25") and bring
warm advection that will bring temperatures to near record
values, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points also look to be
toward the low to mid 60s so it should feel unseasonably humid
as well during the afternoon. Dry weather is expected to prevail
through the day before isolated rain showers become possible
overnight with surging PWAT`s over 1.50" and subtle height falls
ahead of a shortwave.

Saturday and Saturday Night: At the start of the day, a
shortwave will be nearing the region along with a developing
area of low pressure toward the Mid Atlantic along a diffuse
frontal boundary. Persistent moisture advection should maintain
isolated rain showers into the morning hours before the frontal
boundary and core of the shortwave are expected to move through
the area during the afternoon, clearing the FA overnight. The
plume of enhanced moisture advection is expected to shift east
through the day, leading to more isolated PoP`s during the
afternoon where a couple storms can not be ruled out with
minimal elevated instability noted in forecast soundings. This
activity then likely wanes overnight as the front clears the
region. In terms of temperatures, persistent strong
southwesterly flow could bring another afternoon with near
record temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures briefly cool to near normal before rising back
  slightly above normal.

- Rain chances move back in through the midweek.

Slightly cooler and drier air is expected to push in along with
brief shortwave ridging behind Saturday`s front for Sunday and
into Monday. This pattern should keep temperatures closer to
normal, but with dry conditions. The pattern likely amplifies
Tuesday and into the midweek as seen in the EC Ensemble and GEFS
mean solutions where deep troughing moves into the Central US,
maintaining moist southwesterly flow aloft in the FA. A series
of shortwaves should move through Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing at least isolated chances for rain each day with
temperatures just above normal. There has been a consistent
signal in global models that a stronger cold front could push
through toward the late week, bringing back cooler/drier
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another night of fog/stratus is possible tonight bringing IFR or
lower restrictions.

Late day stratus finally dissipated at all terminals except OGB
which continues to carry an IFR cig to start the forecast.
Strong signals in most guidance that stratus/fog forms and
expands northwestward into the Midlands from the Coastal Plain,
with possible stratus build down resulting in dense fog and
IFR/LIFR vsbys. Confidence is highest at OGB with lower
confidence elsewhere and therefore will carry prevailing LIFR
vsbys after 08z at OGB while other terminals have LIFR
restrictions in tempo groups from 08z-12z. Stratus may begin as
early as 03z-05z but confidence is limited in timing though
confidence is high in occurring. Winds should be relatively
light to near calm through the night before picking up from the
southwest around 5 to 10 knots after 15z. Restrictions should
break and return to VFR with mixing between 15z-17z.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue
Friday afternoon. Increasing moisture Friday night into
Saturday will lead to chances for rain and possible
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$