307
FXUS62 KCAE 070257
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
957 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog development is expected tonight into Sunday morning,
potentially dense at times before mostly dry conditions are
expected Sunday. The next round of rain moves in Sunday night
and through Monday. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the
mid to late week period while temperatures remain below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Fog likely tonight with possibility of visibilities less than
  1/4 mile, especially in the NW part of the area.

As forcing from the right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak pivots out of the area this evening, rain is coming to
end across the FA. Dry mid-level air entering the mountains and
Upstate is evident in water vapor imagery and this will continue
progressing toward the Midlands tonight, dropping PWAT`s to
just under 0.50". Forecast soundings continue to indicate a very
moist profile up to around 950-900mb trapped under this dry air
and very little mixing occurring with weak wind profiles.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s
generally and with crossover temps that were in the low to mid
40s, a robust signal for fog development is evident across the
CWA tonight where dense fog is possible. Model guidance
continues to show the highest confidence in potentially dense
fog toward the Pee Dee and possibly northern Midlands where
stratus has already eroded some and is the most likely area
where some mid/high clouds can scatter out more in the coming
hours. Have decided to hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now
to monitor how cloud cover scours out in the coming hours, but
one may be needed later tonight and into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Patchy dense fog Sunday morning
- Increased chances of light rain on Monday
- Drier and cold for Tuesday

     Patchy Dense Fog Sunday Morning...

Low level moisture will remain trapped below a low level inversion,
setting the stage for areas of fog, some of it locally dense. With
the low level jet pulling away, it may take a few hours before it
burns off completely, so I`ve extended the time in the grids until
late morning. By afternoon, the fog should have lifted into a low
overcast for most places. We may even see some breaks of sun over
the Catawba/Pee Dee areas. Temps will remain several degrees below
normal

     Areas of light rain Monday...

The next shortwave passes through on Monday. We should have some
decent lift sue to PVA, but the amount of rain that falls is less
certain as there is a decent sized spread among the ensembles,
ranging from very little to as much as an inch. Given the chances of
PWs being 1/2 inch or more drop throughout the day from the
ensembles, I think low end chance POPs are best. There will be cold
advection at low levels as well, but model forecast profiles do not
indicate any frozen precipitation in our CWA. We`ll keep an eye on
it, of course, but nothing to worry about at this time.

     Drier and Chilly Conditions Tuesday...

Polar high pressure moves into the area by Tuesday. Cold advection
will be king for a day, as morning temps go well below freezing, and
highs are 10-15 degrees below normal. We should finally have a
decent amount of sunshine, however.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Temperatures slowly moderate mid week
- Next cold front moves through Friday

     Temperatures slowly moderate Wednesday and Thursday...

Ensemble means show the jet stream migrating north for the middle of
next week, allowing the air mass over the region to modify for a
couple of days, although I wouldn`t put on my bathing suit to take a
dip in a lake anytime soon. High pressure at the surface will keep
things dry.

     Next cold front moves through Friday...

Models across the board are consistent with the next front moving
through sometime on Friday, ranging from early morning to evening.
This makes temperatures tricky on Friday as an earlier front would
mean much colder conditions by afternoon, while a later front will
allow things to stay mild most of the day. In either case, the
chances for rain are not overly high as the air mass will continue to
be rather dry. Things cool down significantly again for Saturday as
another blast of arctic air moves into the U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread fog will continue LIFR restrictions into Sunday
morning.

Following persistent rainfall across the area and clearing
aloft, widespread fog and stratus have developed this evening.
Temps should remain in the upper 30`s for all TAF sites to avoid
any freezing fog issues at this time. LIFR conditions are
likely with a mix of low vsby and cig restrictions throughout
much of the night and into the morning. This should continue
through Sunday morning, lifting to stratus between 14-16z.
Gradual improvement to IFR and then MVFR expected by late in the
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low level moisture
may result in restrictions into Monday with drier air expected
Tuesday through the end of the period.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...