027
FXUS62 KCAE 041715
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
115 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect temperatures to warm through the remainder of the week
rising to above normal for Friday and Saturday. A stronger front
moves into the area late this weekend leading to chances for
rain Sunday. Much cooler weather expected next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm and dry weather expected through the day

A beautiful morning has come and gone and given way to a fairly
nice afternoon as well. Deep troughing is present to our
northwest and is pushing a weak front across the Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic. Low-level flow has shifted towards
southwesterly across the Carolinas, with warm 925-850 hPa temps
across the area. Temps are expected to be near normal this
afternoon, with highs getting up to around 87F-90F. Despite
this, it still won`t feel too bad out there as surface
dewpoints are generally in the lower 60s across the area.
There is some indication that showers/storms may approach the
western FA this evening but this is pretty unlikely to be
significant or widespread. PWs are 1.0"-1.2" across the area and
forcing is confined northwest of the area. So fair weather
cumulus will likely take us into the evening hours. overnight,
some moisture advection is expected but with clear skies and
light winds expect lows to fall into the mid to upper 60s across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Muggy conditions to end the week and start the weekend with
  mostly dry weather expected.

Friday and Friday Night: The upper trough over the region
slowly begins to eject more toward the NW, leading to modest
500mb height rises through the day with a very diffuse surface
front likely staying just north of the area. Fairly
unidirectional southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere
should aid in increasing moisture and bring increased warm
advection as temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s. With
increasing moisture, heat indices could approach near 100F in
some spots during the afternoon. PWAT`s increase to just above
1.5" through the day but forecast soundings continue to indicate
a solid subsidence inversion that likely should inhibit any
shower or storm formation in the afternoon/evening, thus dry
weather is expected to prevail. Dry weather likely continues
overnight with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday and Saturday Night: The upper trough continues to move
toward the NW with an occluded surface low near Hudson Bay
dragging a cold front into the Appalachians throughout the day
Saturday that will likely near FA late in the day before pushing
through on Sunday. Like Friday, temperatures above normal are
likely, in the mid 90s, with heat indices that near 100F during
the afternoon with moisture continuing to increase across the
region (PWAT`s now reaching 1.60-1.75") ahead of the front. With
forcing from the front remaining mostly NW of the area and the
FA being south of the main forcing from the trough, a mostly dry
day is expected. As the front approaches the area toward the
evening, a spotty shower reaching near the Pee Dee region cannot
be ruled out with deeper moisture slowly moving in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold front moves through the area Sunday with chances for
  showers and isolated storms.

- Cooler and drier weather expected next week behind the front.

Minimal change to the forecast to wrap up the weekend and
through the middle of next week. The cold front is expected to
work through the FA on Sunday where the greatest convergence
along the front should be toward the Eastern Midlands and
Coastal Plain. South of I- 20 is also where the greatest
confidence in PWAT`s exceeding 1.75" is expected with LREF
probabilities reaching 50-70%. This should bring a slight chance
to chance for showers and a couple isolated storms during the
afternoon and into the evening Sunday, especially south of I-20.
Temperatures should start cooling Sunday, but they likely
remain near average.

Behind the front, strong surface high pressure builds into the
Ohio Valley, extending down into the FA as indicated in both of
the mean solutions for the GEFS and EC Ensemble. This area of
high pressure will continue to shift eastward through the
midweek as upper level troughing moves back into the Eastern
CONUS. This leads to fairly high confidence in blended guidance
that temperatures will fall back below normal Monday through
Wednesday. Drier air also looks to accompany this cooler
airmass and thus PoP`s are generally below slight chance through
the period. It continues to appear that the area could find
itself pinned between high pressure ridging into the FA and an
inverted trough off the South Carolina coast, thus breezier
conditions seem possible early in the week with a tightening
pressure gradient.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the period outside of ground fog
at AGS/OGB tonight.

High pressure continues to shift eastward in advance of a weak
front pushing across the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic
this afternoon. This front is forecast to have very little
impact on us outside of yielding surface south or southwesterly
winds and modest moisture advection. Fair weather cumulus is
likely to develop over the next several hours but remain VFR as
it does so. Tonight, winds are likely to die down and foster
another night of ground fog at AGS and OGB. Have a TEMPO at both
sites from 07z to 11z to account for this possibility. Outside
of that, VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather likely through Saturday.
A front will work into the region late this weekend and may
lead to convection on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$