380
FXUS62 KCAE 011721
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
121 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in from the north keeps relatively dry
conditions and below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Dry
conditions may continue through Wednesday before low chances
for rain may return late Thursday and into the weekend as
multiple disturbances pass with a cold front also moving through
the region. Warmer conditions are expected for late week and
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cool high pressure continues to fill into the area with
  mostly clear skies and breezy winds.

Deep troughing continues to sag off the eastern US with strong
surface high pressure digging behind this into the Ohio Valley
and NE US. As a result, strengthening northeast low level flow
continues as this surface high arches down lee of the
Appalachians, bringing much lower dew points and gusty winds.
These northeast winds will be the main feature today with some
gusts 20-25mph expected throughout the afternoon. Otherwise, dew
points will fall down into the low 50`s for most of the area
with PWAT`s down below 1.0" so cloud cover will be little to
none. Despite the clear skies, cold advection will generally win
out and high temps will only climb to around 80 today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Below normal temperatures initially that become closer to
  normal Wednesday.

- Dry conditions likely prevail.

The surface ridge looks to remain in place Tuesday before
slowly breaking down into Wednesday, likely bringing two more
days with cooler/drier weather. Upper troughing will remain in
place Tuesday, before becoming a bit more amplified into
Wednesday as an anomalously deep trough digs into the Great
Lakes region, reinforcing and even deepening the troughing over
the eastern CONUS. This coupled with surface high pressure
pushing off the upper East Coast should turn low level winds a
bit more out of east to southeast, slightly increasing moisture
throughout Wednesday. In terms of sensible weather, dry
conditions are expected to prevail, especially Tuesday with the
surface ridge remaining in place. Temperatures will also be kept
toward the low to mid 80s during the afternoon. For Wednesday,
increasing moisture and veering surface winds should bring
temperatures up a bit, but still just below normal in the mid
80s. A mid level perturbation should near the region Wednesday
and Wednesday night but PWAT`s that remain under 1.5" should aid
in keeping the CWA mostly dry with most activity confined
toward the upstate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Deep troughing likely continues into weekend before modifying
  some.

- Temperatures gradually rise to above normal by late week and
  into weekend.

- Low end rain chances to end the week and into weekend.

There is decent agreement amongst ensemble guidance that
anomalously strong troughing (nearly 2-2.5 standard deviations
stronger than normal) in the Great Lakes should drive the
troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS. A surface low near
northern Lake Superior should also drive a broad cold front
across the Ohio Valley initially before approaching the FA
toward Friday, with a possible secondary front moving through
over the weekend. In general this brings another mostly dry day
Thursday, outside of a spotty shower chance, with perhaps
slight rain chances to end the week and into the weekend, though
confidence remains toward the lower end. Not much moisture
increase is being shown in global guidance ahead of this front
late Thursday and into Friday with LREF probabilities for PWAT`s
greater than 1.5" through Friday evening generally under 50%.
As the front (and possible secondary feature) work through the
region over the weekend, upper troughing is expected to weaken
some, allowing slight height rises by Sunday and into the early
week, perhaps bringing a bit more seasonal rain chances. In
terms of temperatures a general warming trend is expected,
especially by the weekend where a return to above normal
temperatures seems likely.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions throughout the period.

Dry high pressure is filling into the region with all TAF sites
only seeing some scattered mid-level clouds. Dry air will
remain entrenched through Tuesday, so expecting only VFR cigs
and vsby during this period. Winds are the main forecast point
with some gusty northeast winds likely into this evening;
generally sustained 8-12 knots and gusts to around 20 knots.
These should relax after 00z, with only some light winds
continuing overnight. Winds at 2k feet will get close to LLWS
criteria after surface winds calm down this evening but should
remain 20-25 knots of LLWS at most overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible on Thursday
as a front brings some showers-storms to parts of the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$