Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
109 FXUS62 KCAE 160710 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 310 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Ridging will build into the Southeast US this week leading to warming temperatures and a more typical summertime pattern. Heat Index values may exceed 100 degrees later this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon SW low-level flow continues with moisture advection pushing PWAT values up to 2 inches by this afternoon. Slight height rises will keep shortwave activity west and north of the forecast area. Ridging over the region and a warm moist air mass will support a seasonable weather pattern of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. CAMs are in general agreement showing little coverage over the area. A weak lee-side trough and sea-breeze will be the main forcing mechanisms to trigger storms. Severe weather chances will be normal for the season with isolated damaging downburst winds and localized heavy rain possible. The flash flooding risk is limited to urban areas and any training storms with mean wind speeds from 10 to 15 kts. Temperatures will mainly be in the low 90s, just a few degrees above normal. Heat Index values will be as high as 100F. Any convection will diminish during the evening with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A typical summertime pattern continues into Wednesday as ridging remains over the western Atlantic. As a result, south to southwesterly flow keeps a steady supply of elevated moisture in the area. Weak shortwaves rotating around the ridge bring isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area each day. However, these shortwaves are forecast to pass to our west and north, which leads to higher chances for activity to the northwestern portions of the area. In addition to the shower/thunderstorm potential, heat index values of 100+ are possible each afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level trough is forecast to move from the central US through the region on Thursday, pushing a frontal boundary through the area as well. Current guidance is in relatively decent agreement that the boundary is anticipated to move through the area overnight Thursday, which should limit the convection associated with the boundary. After the boundary passes, a gradual decrease in moisture is anticipated for the end of the week as slightly drier air gets ushered in. Despite the drier air moving in, daily chances for showers/storms continue into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect SW winds through the TAF period becoming light and variable tonight. Any afternoon convection will likely be isolated to scattered so confidence is only high enough to include thunderstorms in a PROB30 group for the time being. Low level moisture over the region could lead to stratus early this morning and again tonight. Model guidance has been inconsistent on stratus development and convective debris clouds may also hinder development so confidence is low. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Apart from scattered afternoon convection, patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some restrictions through the extended. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$