956
FXUS62 KCAE 171833
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
233 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place
through mid-week. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening. A
cold front is slated to move into the forecast area late
Thursday into Thursday night then stall across the region. Upper
ridging then builds in late this week and into the weekend as
temperatures continue to warm though the chance of rain remains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered storms into this evening

An upper level trough is located over the Mississippi Valley, while
the region remains positioned along the northwest periphery of an
upper ridge centered over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a
warm/moist southwest flow prevails.

High dewpoint values in the lower 70s have contributed to CAPE
values of 3000-3500 J/kg this afternoon. Precipitable water values
are also near 2.0 inches area-wide. This moist and unstable
environment is favorable for the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage
likely across western and central portions of the forecast area
where heights are slightly lower. The convection should generally be
low topped given the subsidence aloft, but its certainly possible
for a few stronger storms to develop with primarily a localized
damaging wind threat with favorable low level lapse rates.
Brief heavy rainfall is also possible within any storms, but
given the limited coverage, do not expect any significant
flooding issues. Highs todays will be in the lower 90s with heat
indices around 100 in most areas.

The bulk of the convection will be diurnally driven, so expect
storms to diminish in coverage during the evening, which is
also supported by the latest CAMs. Skies will gradually clear as
well, with mainly some high level clouds through the night.
Some patchy stratus could develop toward daybreak. Overnight
temperatures will be rather mild, with lows in the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot, humid, and mainly dry on Wednesday.

- An approaching cold front brings the threat of showers and
  thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. A few
  thunderstorms may become strong, especially in the Pee Dee.

Bermuda high pressure continues to drive the weather on
Wednesday. Expect another hot and humid day with daytime
temperatures in the lower 90s. Latest guidance shows a mainly
dry forecast with only a low, less than 20 percent, chance for
measurable precipitation in the afternoon and evening focused
towards the Upstate where the better upper forcing is, and
towards the coast where the sea breeze may support isolated
convection. Any showers and thunderstorms that do manage to
develop should dissipate quickly with the loss of daytime
heating. The situation on Thursday will be different as an upper
trough passes to our north and an attendant cold front moves
into the FA late Thursday and into Thursday night. The SPC Day 3
SWO places the entire CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe
weather with a Slight (2/5) risk just to our north. Modeled
soundings continue to support the potential for damaging wind
gusts with an inverted-V sounding and ample CAPE. The sounding
for CLT shows higher wind shear than yesterday indicating that a
few thunderstorms may become strong, especially for the
counties in the northern Midlands. The wind shear at CAE and AGS
is lower supporting the lower severe threat across the remainder
of the forecast area. Rain chances should diminish from
northwest to southeast but may hold on through the night south
and east of I-20 as the frontal boundary slows down.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Stalled frontal boundary brings daily chances Friday and into
  the weekend.

- Temperatures gradually increase through the extended as strong
  upper ridging moves overhead. Will need to monitor for
  potential heat products early next week.

The cold front is expected to stall across the region on Friday,
keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through
Sunday. Rain chances should be highest wherever the frontal
boundary is located. An anomalously strong upper ridge to the
west settles overhead on Sunday, resulting in a gradual rise in
temperatures through the period. Early next week is expected to
be hot and humid and mainly dry, with heat index values
approaching Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected through the TAF period.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon and should persist into early evening. Coverage, while
limited, should be greater where upper level heights are lower,
mainly across the the Columbia and Augusta area terminals where
a PROB30 group has been included for TSRA through 22Z.
Occasional VFR level ceilings are also possible, but convection
and clouds will generally dissipate with the loss of heating
this evening. Southwesterly winds with gusts upwards of around
15 kt will persist during the afternoon, but eventually become
light and variable by late evening. A few stratus clouds could
develop around daybreak, and a brief period of MVFR ceilings are
possible but probabilities are too low to include mention in
the TAFs this far out in time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely
through the extended. Convective coverage will also be low
through the week but restrictions from storms are most likely
Thursday ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$