Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
531 FXUS61 KCAR 220001 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 801 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for 00z TAFs && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A closed low pressure system developing over the Mid Atlantic coast will progress north on Saturday and move rain into the region Saturday night. The CAMs are starting to grab onto the storm giving a clearer picture of the rain timeline. Expect rain to begin along the coast Saturday evening and push NNE through Saturday night. The question for Saturday night will be how much rainfall will occur, especially for areas in the north. Unfortunately, the ensembles still disagree on amounts as of this update. After midnight, the center of the low will be over Downeast. As this coastal low moves northward, a vertically stacked low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will progress E over New England. This new low is expected to weaken the coastal low, which will increase the amount of moisture within the stronger low. By Sunday, expect widespread rainfall continuing throughout the day. Throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. Since the rain amounts are unknown as of this update, it is unknown if this system will bring any relief to the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the TAF period from KHUL on north. High in VFR at KBGR through 18Z Saturday, with gradually increasing chances of MVFR 19-24Z (but still too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time). High confidence in VFR at KBHB through midday Saturday. MVFR develops there during the early afternoon hours. There is a low chance of IFR at KBHB by the end of the TAF period, however there is not sufficient confidence to place in the TAFs at this time. Winds become light and variable throughout early this evening. SE winds at 6-10KT develop at northern terminals around midday, then become light and variable at all but KFVE early Saturday evening. At southern terminals, a NE wind at around 10KT develops by mid Saturday morning. Saturday night: Becoming IFR or lower at all terminals in rain. E-SE winds G15-20KT possible. Sunday-Monday: IFR or lower likely. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and again Monday afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday. Monday night-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds generally below 20 kt through Saturday night, though east winds approach 25 kt over 25-60NM waters Saturday afternoon/evening. Seas build to 2-4 ft with highest seas over the waters from 25-60nm Saturday evening. Patchy fog and rain may reduce visibilities to 1-3NM. Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. Fog likely the next few nights. A chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ARL/PM AVIATION...21/ARL/PM