Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
480 FXUS61 KCAR 061033 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 633 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains to our south today then moves east tonight. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday, crosses the area Tuesday night and then moves offshore on Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday then slides to our south on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 630 am update.. High pressure south of the waters this morning with clear skies over the CWA. Some high clouds spilling into nrn areas this morning but expect zero impact on temps. Have removed fog from southern areas this morning but no other chgs needed with the update. Prev discussion blo... High pressure to our south will combine with strong ridging over the area and subsidence beneath the ridge to bring sunshine and an exceptionally warm day today. Highs will reach mid- summer like warmth in the low to mid 80s inland. Tonight will be another balmy night under the glow of the harvest moon. The gradient between the high to the south and a cold front beginning to approach from the northwest will maintain a southwesterly breeze, especially over the higher elevations where lows will be in the mid 50s. The Penobscot and Mattawamkeag valleys may have lows closer to 50 where the atmosphere will try to decouple overnight. Tuesday will be another exceptionally warm day ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs well inland will approach 80 with a southwesterly breeze continuing. Showers ahead of the cold front will begin to push into the northwest late Thursday afternoon and a few places may have an isolated thunderstorm. The NAM continues to show CAPE over 400 J/KG while the GFS indicates that capping will be too great to produce CAPE. Even with marginal CAPE, the strong surface convergence along the front may be enough to spawn some convection along our northwestern border. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will be entering NW Maine Tuesday evening pushing thru most of the CWA by Wednesday morning. Slgt chc for thunder over the northwest before instability wanes after late evening. Bulk of the rainfall looks to occur north of Katahdin through midnight with amounts between 0.25-0.50 inches falling thru 06z. As the front pushes south expect the best forcing to shift south as most of the area will be in LFQ of upr jet. Overall rain totals during the nighttime hours range from around 0.20" over far sern zones, to 0.75- 0.90 inches from the Central Highlands and points north and east. By 12z Wednesday, front will be located over interior Downeast with 6-hr amounts possibly in excess of 0.50 inches in the morning. Temps over nrn zones will rise for several hours in the morning before falling through the day. NW winds will gust acrs the higher terrain in the afternoon to near 25 mph. All told, rainfall amounts across the CWA will average around an inch for the event through the day Wednesday. Not a drought buster by any stretch of the imagination but certainly beneficial, especially over the north. Skies will clear Wednesday night following fropa however pressure gradient will still keep airmass well-mixed, with nw winds continuing to gust. With H8 tmps dropping twd -5C most areas drop into the 30s with North Woods below freezing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will begin to build in on Thursday and then move offshore Friday. Expect mostly clear skies and temps moderating through the period. May see temps drop into the 20s over a good chunk of the area Thursday night with 50th percentile of NBM 2-5 degrees lower than it/s deterministic counterpart. Depending on location of high center may need to lower mins for Thursday night with growing season still "active" for interior Downeast and the coast until October 21st. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today and this evening. Cannot rule out IFR restrictions for Downeast terminals late tonight but confidence is too low at this time, other than to include SCT005 at BHB after 09z. Tuesday...Possibly IFR BGR and BHB during the morning. Otherwise, VFR, dropping to MVFR north late. SW wind 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt gusts 20. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain. SW 5-10kts becoming NW. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain Downeast terminals, with Aroostook terminals improving to VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts to 25kts in the afternoon. Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. NW 5-15kts, gusts to 25kts Thursday. Thursday night-Friday...VFR. Light W winds becoming SW 5-10kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today, tonight and Tuesday morning. SW winds will begin to approach 25 kt in gusts and seas build to around 5 ft late Tuesday. Humid air over the colder waters will likely result in some mist and patchy fog through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Seas and wind gusts aoa small craft levels over the outer waters Tuesday night ahead of cold front. Seas diminish Wednesday morning along with winds. Fropa will bring nw winds to the waters Wednesday afternoon with gusts approaching marginal conditions once again Wednesday night. Seas will remain below 5ft Wednesday morning through the end of the week with winds below sca levels Thursday morning through Friday as high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue today with record warmth. Minimum relative humidity around 25 to 40 percent is expected this afternoon, along with wind gusts to around 25 mph across northern Maine, leading to elevated fire weather conditions when combined with the recent dry weather. A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, with rainfall totals of up to an inch possible. South/southwest wind gusts up to around 20 mph are expected Monday/Tuesday afternoons. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Caribou set a record high temperature yesterday, Sunday October 5th, of 81 degrees. The previous record was 77 set in 1946 and 2005. This is only the second October day reaching 80 degrees or warmer during the period of record, which dates back to 1939. The other day was October 9th, 2011, when the high temperature was 82 degrees. Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 74/1946 82 Bangor 84/1946 85 Millinocket 82/1946 85 Houlton 80/1946 84 Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 76/2016 80 Bangor 84/1946 77 Millinocket 81/1946 80 Houlton 76/2016 80 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MB/21 Short Term...21 Long Term...21 Aviation...MB/21 Marine...MB/21 Fire Weather...MB/21 Climate...21