Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
773 FXUS61 KCAR 060049 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 849 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves east through Monday. A cold front crosses the region later Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 8 PM Update: Updated wind gusts, minimum RH, and temperatures for Monday afternoon after evaluating the fire weather situation and forecast soundings. Temperatures warmed slightly more than expected today which may translate to an extra degree or two compared to the NBM for tomorrow with similar temperatures around 925mb anticipated. Previous Discussion: A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will crest across the region tonight into Monday. At the same time, surface high will continue to drift east into the open waters of the western Atlantic. Subsidence associated with the ridge will result in a mainly clear sky tonight. Some patchy fog is possible late across downeast areas. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 50s. Monday will be a mainly sunny and unseasonably warm day for early October, as high pressure both at the surface and aloft moves east. Southwest flow at the surface and aloft will result in record high temperatures Monday afternoon across the region. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower 80s throughout much of the region away from the immediate coast. Monday night will be mainly clear as high pressure continues to move east in advance of an approaching upper trough and cold front from Quebec. Lows will range from the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday: The low pressure system and the warm front will remain well to the north bringing warm S flow to the region. Temps could reach record highs for the day in the upper 70s to low 80s. With the cold front approaching from the W, pressure gradients are squeezing between the exiting high and the front. Thus winds should increase throughout the day, with gusty winds along the coast. Extended models indicate the rain ahead of the cold front should move in by late evening. In addition, models are showing instability ahead of the front, which could produce isolated thunderstorms across the north. Tuesday night: The cold front should progress across the region. As of the this update, QPF models show the majority of rainfall moving through the region throughout the night. As the front moves through, temps should drop into the 50s and wind direction shifts from the NW. Wednesday: The cold front should gradually exit to the E throughout the day. The majority of rain is expected in the south for the day and should dissipate by late afternoon. Temps should be drastically cooler from Tuesdays high temps with upper 50s in the north and low 60s in the south. Breezy NNW winds should continue with gradually clearing skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure is expected to dominate the region through the rest of the week into the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies and near normal temps. Thursday night could see temps dropping into the upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through Monday. SW winds around 5 to 10 kt are expected tonight, then 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are likely at northern terminals during the afternoon. Monday Night Outlook...Mainly VFR with possible IFR late KBGR/KBHB. S to SW wind. SHORT TERM: Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in rain north. SSW winds 5-15 kts Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain. SW winds becoming NW winds 5-10 kts. Wednesday...VFR north. MVFR/IFR south in rain. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Wed night-Fri...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Monday night. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday into Tuesday night for SW winds gusting over 25 kt. Seas will build to 4 to 5 ft Tuesday and 5 to 6 ft Tuesday night in response to the southwesterly wind. Humid air over the cooler water may result in some mist and fog into early Wednesday morning. Good vsby should return Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue tonight through Monday with record warmth. Minimum relative humidity around 25 to 40 percent is expected Monday afternoon, along with wind gusts to around 25 mph across northern Maine, leading to elevated fire weather conditions when combined with the recent dry weather. A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, with rainfall totals of up to an inch is possible. South/southwest wind gusts up to around 20 mph are expected Monday/Tuesday afternoons. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Caribou set a record high temperature today, Sunday October 5th, of 81 degrees. The previous record was 77 set in 1946 and 2005. This is only the second October day reaching 80 degrees or warmer during the period of record, which dates back to 1939. The other day was October 9th, 2011, when the high temperature was 82 degrees. Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 74/1946 82 Bangor 84/1946 85 Millinocket 82/1946 85 Houlton 73/1957 83 Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 76/2016 78 Bangor 84/1946 78 Millinocket 81/1946 79 Houlton 76/2016 78 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...TWD/MWS Short Term...ARL Long Term...ARL Aviation...TWD/MWS/ARL Marine...TWD/ARL Fire Weather... Climate...