738
FXUS61 KCAR 190209
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1009 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog again tonight and Wednesday night. Fog could be
locally dense at times and impact travel. Dense fog is most
likely in low-lying areas.

2) Chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Showers and storms
will be isolated to scattered in nature, with the better chance
over North/Northwest Maine.

3) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday
into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this
could bring to the developing drought at this time.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Areas of fog again tonight and Wednesday night. Fog could be
locally dense at times and impact travel. Dense fog is most
likely in low-lying areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
With very light winds and a moist airmass at low levels
persisting, fog is likely again tonight and tomorrow night.
While fog this morning tended to cling to the hilltops for
inland areas, think that tonight`s fog and lower visibilities
will tend to be in lower-lying valleys as the fog will be more
of a classic radiation fog. Similar situation in store for
Wednesday night. Nighttime dense fog always adds challenges to
driving conditions with significant wildlife activity at night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Showers
and storms will be isolated to scattered in nature, with the
better chance over North/Northwest Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Today`s convection has been a dud so far, so lowered shower
chances and eliminated thunder chances for the rest of this
afternoon. For Wednesday, there should be just enough
instability and lift ahead of a weak approaching cold front that
there could be some afternoon showers/storms. Chances however
are generally 30 percent or less, with the better storm chances
over North/Northwest Maine. We don`t expect any of the storms to
be on the stronger side.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for widespread rainfall
from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any,
relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A closed low tracks from near the Great Lakes on Sunday to
southwestern Quebec/Northern New England by Monday evening.
Based on the ensemble consensus would expect warm advection
rain, with embedded convection from Sunday through Monday. The
latter is most likely in the afternoon/early evening. At this
point in time, given the inherent uncertainty in days 6 and 7 in
the forecast, plus the added uncertainty given the storm type
(even if somewhat mitigated by a degree of consensus in the
ensembles), it is to early to state what, if any, impacts this
system may have on the region.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overnight...Variable conditions with areas of fog. Otherwise,
VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise,
generally VFR. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms
possible. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
south/southwest.

Wednesday night: MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog or any
convection ahead of the cold front, then becoming VFR overnight.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. E winds 5-10 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
Intermittent fog over the waters through Wednesday night, more
prevalent during nighttime hours. Fairly light winds through
Wednesday night. Seas to increase to about 4 ft tonight as a S
swell. Cannot rule out seas to 5 ft, but not enough confidence
to issue any small craft advisory.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters from Thursday through
Saturday should allow for winds of 10kt or less and seas of 4
ft or less across the waters out to 60nm. Sunday could see an
increase in winds up to 15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. Rain showers
with possible afternoon thunderstorms expected.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...TF/ARL/CN