994
FXUS61 KCAR 172357
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
757 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northwest of the area Wednesday and
again Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night
into Friday. A disturbance will cross the region Saturday. High
pressure will build across the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 PM Update: Overcast skies continue to build in this
evening, with a round of rain showers tracking up through
southern Maine at this time and will push into the Downeast
region over the next several hours. With gusty winds likely
persisting through the night, particularly across the north, fog
threat will remain most concentrated to the immediate coast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion:
A few weak showers have developed over northern Aroostook in an
area of weak instability. Satellite imagery shows they have not
gained great vertical extent and will likely remain weak in
nature, eventually tapering off in the evening as the sun sets
and the atmosphere stabilizes. Meanwhile, showers ahead of an
approaching warm front will begin to develop this evening in the
southwest and gradually spread northeastward. Precipitation
will not be heavy, but it will be enough to make things damp as
humidity rises across the area. Expect most of the precipitation
to fall over the Downeast region. Light southerly winds, a
steep inversion, and ample moisture should lead to the
development of fog over the waters and inland. Some locally
dense fog cannot be ruled out.

A cold front approaches the region Wednesday and stalls out
before reaching Maine. Ample moisture and modest instability
ahead of the front should lead to the development of scattered
thunderstorms over the north with a few showers possible
elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s in
the north and potentially 80 in localized areas where there are
enough breaks in the clouds. Farther south and east, the marine
layer is expected to persist resulting in cloudier conditions
and temperatures only in the 60s. Some areas right along the
coast and over the waters may see fog persist throughout much of
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect weakening showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night in
advance of an approaching boundary. Low pressure will approach
later Thursday, though the track of the low is uncertain. A
track northwest of Maine would draw a cold front toward the
region later Thursday with showers/thunderstorms developing in
advance of the front. Dependent on the timing of the front,
strong thunderstorms could reach northwest areas later Thursday.
A more southerly track would limit the potential for stronger
thunderstorms, though could increase a heavy rain threat
particularly across northern and central portions of the
forecast area. The more northerly track would draw the cold
front across much of the region Thursday night with
showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. The more
southerly track could take low pressure across northern portions
of the forecast area with a steadier rain along with embedded
convection along with possibly heavy rain. Warm humid air across
the colder waters of the Gulf of Maine should also allow for
areas of fog Wednesday night into Thursday night, which could
move inland overnight. Uncertainty persists Friday regarding
whether the cold front clears the region early, or whether the
front slows while low pressure tracks along the front. A more
progressive frontal passage would allow showers to end during
the morning. A slower moving front with low pressure could keep
rain or showers across the region through Friday. Slightly
above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday.
Temperatures Friday will be dependent on which scenario
eventually occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any lingering showers will end Friday night. A possible upper
level disturbance/surface trof could cross the region Saturday
with a chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Upper level
ridging will build Sunday through early next week with warming
temperatures and increasing dewpoints. Difficult to time
convective complexes moving over the top of the upper ridge
could impact the region Sunday through early next week. Diurnal
shower/thunderstorm chances should also increase with the heat
and humidity. Near normal level temperatures are expected
Saturday. Temperatures will then warm to above normal levels
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals: VFR continues through midnight, followed by
cigs decreasing to MVFR or possibly high end IFR through the
rest of the night as a low approaches from the south. S winds 5
to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts to last through the night. Brief
LLWS possible this evening should winds diminish. Conditions
will improve slightly into the day on Wednesday, with cigs
lifting to MVFR in between rounds of rain showers. Isolated
chance for thunderstorms later on Wednesday.

Downeast terminals: VFR conditions will quickly drop to IFR/LIFR
overnight as rain moves in from the south and west. Fog could
build in, most likely along the immediate coast, and would limit
vis to IFR. Gusty winds will taper off overnight with S winds 5
to 10 kts, and will increase once more on Wednesday with S winds
5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts. Rain showers will taper off
through the day on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with decreasing shower/thunderstorm
chances. Variable conditions with any fog. South/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...Variable conditions with any fog or
showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, generally VFR/MVFR,
occasional IFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday through Friday night. Uncertainty dependent on the
timing of a cold front and track of low pressure.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, possibly an afternoon
thunderstorm. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night through Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory
levels for the near term. Seas 2 to 3 ft with south winds 5 to
15 kts. Marine fog expected to develop tonight and may persist
through Thursday, with reductions in visibility to near 1/2 mile
possible.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Wednesday night through Friday. Areas of fog Wednesday night
into Thursday night, with patchy fog Friday. A slight chance of
showers Wednesday night and Thursday. A chance/slight chance of
showers Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Melanson
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Melanson/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Melanson/Norcross