Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
715 FXUS61 KCAR 031136 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 736 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak shortwave moves through today with high pressure on Thursday. An occluded/cold front passing through on Friday. A secondary cold front moves through the area Saturday with high pressure building in behind it for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 7:40AM Update...Updated temperatures to match observations. See updated Aviation Section below. Previous Discussion... Upper level low pressure will remain across the Great Lakes region through tonight. A weak upper trough in advance of this system will cross the region this afternoon. This feature will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to far northern areas this afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies across the region today. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s but it will be cooler along the coast as a result of an onshore flow. Any lingering isolated showers across northern areas will quickly diminish early this evening followed by mainly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight along with light winds. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region. A broad upper level trough will be in place across much of the central and eastern portions of the nation during Thursday. Northern New England will remain under the influence of mid to upper level ridging in advance of the approaching trough from the west. Expect another mainly sunny and dry day Thursday with afternoon high temperatures once again in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure continues to move offshore Thursday night while a vertically stacked low pressure system stalls out over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold/occluded front will approach western Maine while gradually weakening. Light southerly flow ahead of the boundary bringing moist low-level air northward may contribute to some patchy fog development particularly near the coast and in the central highlands overnight. Rain showers are expected along the weakening occluded/cold front beginning in western Maine early Friday, spreading east throughout the day. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in the west during the afternoon but confidence is low due to limited instability. A secondary cold front will approach the area Friday night bringing more showers to northern and western Maine with the greatest chance for precipitation farther north. On Saturday, the cold front progresses southeast and lift along it increases in response to an upper-level trough off to the west. Models show a corridor of instability in the Bangor and interior Downeast region of 500-1000 J/kg which in combination with the ample lift should be sufficient for some scattered thunderstorms in addition to moderate rainfall. The exact evolution of the cold front is still uncertain as ensembles show some discrepancy in rainfall potential, likely due to the details of the interaction between the cold front and trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front gradually moves offshore through Sunday morning but some showers could stick around along the coast through the day depending on how quickly the front exits the area. Added a chance of showers in the north during the day as models show some weak instability and a shortwave off to the west which could provide sufficient lift. High pressure builds in on Monday as the upper-level trough exits the area. Expect mostly sunny skies with below normal temperatures through mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected today. KBGR and KFVE still experiencing some fog early this morning, but will dissipate as sun continues to rise. A thunderstorm could affect the KFVE terminal this afternoon, with brief MVFR possible. Slight potential for some VCTS at KCAR and KPQI, but chances are low so kept VCSH in the TAF for these sites. S wind around 10 kts today. VFR tonight, except late night patchy fog/low stratus is possible, with locally lower conditions possible. Light and variable wind. VFR Thursday. S wind around 10 kt. SHORT TERM: Thursday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late. Slight chance/chance of showers late. Some patchy fog also possible for southern terminals. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Friday...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR early especially at southern terminals where patchy fog is possible. Increasing shower chances with the greatest likelihood of precipitation at northern terminals. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Showers likely at northern terminals. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for southern terminals. Rain with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon at HUL/BGR/BHB. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for southern terminals. Rain. Variable winds around 5 kts. Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers. West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday night...VFR. West winds around 5 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in late night and early morning patchy fog through Thursday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday through Friday. Wind gusts and seas could approach small craft advisory levels Friday night. Winds decrease slightly Saturday but seas may remain around 5 ft. A slight chance of showers Friday/Friday night. Rain Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Brennan/TWD Short Term...Melanson Long Term...Melanson Aviation...Brennan/TWD/Melanson Marine...Brennan/TWD/Melanson