417
FXUS61 KCAR 011821
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area tonight through Tuesday. An
upper level disturbance will cross the region Wednesday. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday. An occluded front will
begin to cross the region Friday into Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over New England through tomorrow,
leading to dry and calm conditions for the near term period.
Skies are partially cloudy this afternoon. Looking at mostly
clear skies this evening, before some mid-and-upper level clouds
move in from south to north overnight. Many folks are hoping to
see the aurora this evening, but just be mindful that upper-level clouds
can hinder ability to see northern lights. Northern Maine has
the best chance for relatively clear skies tonight. Winds will
be light and variable. Similar to the past few nights, high
relative humidity along with potential surface inversion could
lead to some patchy river valley fog, predominantly in the
north. Overnight lows in the 50s throughout the region.

On Tuesday, upper-level trough moves east into New England,
continuing to bring clouds into the area. There is a low
pressure system out in the Atlantic, but seems to stay far
enough east to not bring any rain to the coast. Mostly cloudy.
Upper-level low brings a little instability into the region,
which could produce a few light showers in far western Maine.
High temperatures generally in the 70s tomorrow. Overnight,
skies become partially cloudy. Included some river valley fog
given recent trends, and continued light winds. Another chance
for light rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, moving
in from the west.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trof will cross the region Wednesday, with surface
high pressure ridged to the southeast. Expect partly sunny
skies, along with a chance of mostly afternoon showers, across
mostly northern/central areas Wednesday. With diurnal heating
could also have just enough instability to also support the
slight chance of a thunderstorm. Mostly/partly sunny skies are
expected Downeast. The upper trof exits across the Maritimes
Wednesday night, with building high pressure late. Could still
have a slight chance/chance of showers across northern areas
Wednesday evening which will then end with the loss of diurnal
heating, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. Mostly clear
skies are expected Downeast Wednesday night. Patchy, mostly
river valley, fog is then possible across the forecast area
later Wednesday night. High pressure exits across the Maritimes
Thursday/Thursday night. At the same time, a vertically stacked
system will remain north of the Great Lakes, while a slow moving
cold/occluded front crosses the Great Lakes and begins to
approach western New England late. Expect mostly sunny skies
Thursday, with clouds then increasing Thursday night. Dependent
on the timing of the cold/occluded front, could also have the
slight chance of showers starting to approach western areas
later Thursday night. Near normal level temperatures are
expected Wednesday, with slightly above normal level
temperatures Thursday.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An initial cold/occluded front should cross the region Friday with
showers, slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. A secondary
cold/occluded front should then cross the region Saturday through
Saturday night with more extensive showers or a steadier rain. The
exact timing of both these fronts remains uncertain. An upper level
trof will also begin to approach later Saturday night. The upper
trof will begin to cross the region Sunday through Sunday night
while a disturbance moves through the trof. Generally expect partly
cloudy skies across the region Sunday, along with the slight
chance/chance of showers. The upper trof should cross the region
Monday. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
showers across northern areas Monday, with mostly clear/partly
cloudy skies Downeast. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal,
level temperatures Friday/Saturday. Slightly below normal level
temperatures are expected Sunday/Monday.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions today. Skies partially
clear, with a few cumulus clouds. Winds light and variable
today, before slowly becoming S at 5kts tomorrow. Potential for
some overnight valley fog tonight in river valleys.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions today. Skies partially clear, with a
few cumulus clouds. Winds light and variable into today, before
slowly becoming S at 5kts tomorrow. Slight chance for low
ceilings/river valley fog, but confidence not high enough to put
in the TAF.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Variable conditions with any
patchy fog later Wednesday night. Otherwise, generally VFR. Slight
chance/chance of an afternoon shower, slight chance of a
thunderstorm, mostly northern and central areas. West/southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday, becoming south/southwest Wednesday
night.

Thursday...VFR. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late. Slight chance of showers
late west. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. Increasing shower chances.
South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of showers. South/southeast winds
10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. South/southwest winds 10
to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria tonight
into tomorrow. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all waters.
Winds light and clockwise throughout the into tomorrow
afternoon. Become S at 5kts tomorrow evening.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday
through Thursday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Norcross