366
FXUS61 KCAR 161100
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
700 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide east of the area today into Tuesday.
Low pressure will then pass northwest of the area Wednesday and
again on Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday
night. A large area of high pressure will set up across the
Eastern Seaboard on Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:30 a.m. update...Quick update to reflect current conditions,
especially more widespread cloud cover across Bangor region. Low
clouds over Downeast are already starting to thin and skies
should be sunny by midday.

Previous discussion...Mainly dry conditions through today
across the mainland with the residual effects of the high
sliding off to the east. Return flow will strengthen through the
day humidity will increase across the forecast area as well.
Warm air advection over the Gulf of Maine will develop a more
solid fog/low stratus layer. Currently some low stratus is
developing from the southwest across Bangor and Downeast. This
will dissipate slightly during the day, but with continuing
onshore flow and increasing stability overnight, light drizzle
and patchy fog will develop across Downeast and Penobscot Bay,
lingering until Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level troughing will develop over the Great Lakes Tuesday
into Wednesday, directing moisture northward into Maine. A
strengthening area of low pressure will pass well to the north
over northern Quebec, directing a weak pre frontal trough
towards the western Maine border on Tuesday afternoon that could
be a trigger for a few showers late. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, the cold front moves closer with models differing
significantly with its location. Most guidance shows a weak
shortwave and moisture pooling ahead of the front Tuesday night
leading to a period of likely showers. However, the ECMWF is
much slower and weaker with both the front and shortwave,
resulting in a drier forecast.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, pre-existing differences in
guidance continue to compound as another shortwave moves across
the Great Lakes. Solutions with a slower progression of the
aforementioned front cause the resulting surface low to
strengthen faster along the lingering theta e gradient in
southern Quebec. Sufficient moisture should remain for scattered
showers Wednesday with diurnal heating, dissipating Wednesday
night with areas of fog developing. Lightning risk is low on
Wednesday, but not zero with the best chance along the Quebec
border if the cold front does not fully clear the area.
Temperatures will be seasonable during the period with highs
across the area mostly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will move over or northwest of the area on
Thursday, with the majority of solutions taking the low
northwest of the area. This would place northern and eastern
Maine within the warm sector, leading to warm high temperatures
in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s and potential for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Thursday night. Low level
south flow is likely to dampen the instability for Downeast
areas, so the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be north and
west of Baxter State Park. There is potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms in some scenarios. However, this is still
far out with a large range of possible outcomes for key
influencing parameters such as cloud cover, instability, and
mid-level lapse rates.

Low pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday
with drier north flow expected. The ECMWF is on the strong end
with potentially gusty winds in the wake of the system, while
most other guidance has a much weaker pressure gradient and
winds. Despite the drier air, cold air aloft underneath the
upper trough should still favor some diurnal shower activity,
especially over the north.

For the weekend, rising heights as the upper trough moves
eastward should favor generally dry and mostly to partly clear
conditions. However, a couple lingering shortwaves could
maintain an isolated shower chance, particularly with diurnal
heating.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

Southern sites...Low stratus is covering a broad region along
the I-95 corridor and portions of Hancock County. Fog is limited
and reduction in flight cat is constrained to cigs. Still
expecting cigs to scatter out this morning. Overnight tonight,
fog and low stratus will return, with some patchy drizzle along
the coast as well. SW wind 10 kts.

Northern sites...VFR expected all day. Some risk of overnight
fog tonight but confidence that it will form at any individual
TAF site is low. SW wind 10 kts.


SHORT TERM:
Tuesday: Brief MVFR possible in the morning as
diurnal cumulus builds, otherwise VFR. VCSH possible late at
northern terminals. S winds 10-20 kts.

Tuesday night: Becoming IFR with SHRA. FG is also possible
Downeast. S winds 5-15 kts.

Wednesday: IFR early with SHRA possible, becoming VFR. S winds
5-15 kts. IFR returns at southern terminals Wednesday night.

Thursday: IFR at southern terminals in the morning. Otherwise
VFR with tempo MVFR/IFR in the afternoon and evening with SHRA
and potential for a TS at northern terminals. S-SW winds 5-15
kts.

Friday: MVFR possible early, otherwise VFR. N-NW winds with high
uncertainty in speeds, ranging from around 10 kts to 35 kts
depending on the track and intensity of a nearby area of low
pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria for the
near term. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Marine fog will develop today,
potentially reducing visibility to a mile or so.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory thresholds through the middle of the week. There is a
moderate potential (50 percent chance) of advisory level winds
and/or seas Thursday and possibly into Friday depending on the
track and intensity of low pressure passing northwest of the
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...LF/MStrauser
Marine...LF/MStrauser