831
FXUS61 KCAR 130530
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
130 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increasing confidence in rainfall totals of around a third of
  an inch for Downeast and less elsewhere.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers today into Monday morning. Rainfall will have
minimal impact on the drought.

2) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas Monday
night.

3) Chance for rain showers by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers today into Monday morning. Rainfall
will have minimal impact on the drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure begins to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region and a
cold front crosses Quebec Province today. Clouds will increase
early this morning, with showers then approaching from the west.
The low will reach the Gulf of Maine later today, while the
cold front approaches the Saint Lawrence Valley. Models have
been trending offshore with the better upper level support and
better precipitable water values. Current indications are that
the heavier rains should remain across the waters of the Gulf of
Maine, possibly clipping Downeast areas. Other showers are
possible across northern areas in advance of the approaching
cold front. Although instability is limited, could also have
isolated/scattered thunderstorms across northern areas this
afternoon/evening. The low exits across the Maritimes tonight,
while the cold front crosses the region and an upper trof
approaches from the west. Shower chances will persist across the
region tonight. The upper trof then crosses the region Monday
keeping a chance of mostly early showers. Rainfall with this
system will have minimal impact on the drought, with only
around a third of an inch expect for Downeast and less to the
north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern
areas Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will build across the region behind the cold
front Monday, bringing clear skies and light winds. This will
result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Low
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across much of
northern Maine, with some locations in the North Woods cooling
down into the low 30s. Patchy/areas of frost are possible Monday
night across the northern areas, particularly in colder valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance for rain showers by late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system to the far north moves eastward, pushing a
front through New England late next week. Models disagree on
the timing of the pressure system, with the ECMWF generally
moving the system through the region by the end of the week,
and the GFS moves the system through later into the weekend. Not
anticipating enough rainfall to provide drought improvement at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This morning...VFR through 14z with ceilings lowering to MVFR
from south to north as rain moves in. South winds 5 to 10 kts.
Southwesterly low level wind shear possible across all
terminals through 09z.

This afternoon...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Scattered/numerous
showers. Isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible,
mostly north. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around
20 knots.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, late. Numerous/scattered
showers north. An evening thunderstorm also possible.
Isolated/scattered showers Downeast. South winds around 10
knots, becoming southwest/west.

Monday...MVFR early, improving to VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt
gusting to 25 kt.

Monday night-Wednesday night...VFR. Chance for valley fog early
Tuesday morning. Light NW winds Monday night become S Tuesday,
and shift W/SW by Wednesday. Light and variable winds Wednesday
night.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR in rain showers. Light
and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through tonight.
Showers and patchy fog today into Monday, with S winds today and
NW winds Monday.

All waters should experience sustained winds less than 15 kt,
gusts less than 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less through Thursday.
N winds Monday night, becoming S/SW Tuesday evening into
Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ASB/JMM
AVIATION...ASB/JMM