018
FXUS61 KCAR 140420
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1220 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through the weekend
while low pressure remains south of Maine. High pressure will
move east of the region Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Latest satellite imagery shows high cloud streaming across the
area with the exception of far northern Maine. Current temperatures
were generally ranging from the low to mid 40s north, to near
50 degrees in the Bangor region and Downeast. The current
forecast remains on track and no changes made at this hour.

Previous Discussion...
Patchy frost is possible tonight in the normally colder valleys
in the North, especially in the North Woods. Decided to
highlight the potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook in
northwestern Aroostook County. Not enough confidence for a frost
advisory at this time.

A few showers are possible at the Downeast Coast for Saturday
morning thanks to the aforementioned low. Otherwise, expect a
dry day with partly to mostly sunny skies and light winds. High
temperatures will be well into the 60s inland. Afternoon sea
breeze development will keep temperatures in the 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will slide eastward Saturday night, bringing the
opportunity for a weak shortwave to move through on Sunday. This
will cause some afternoon showers, but nothing widespread or
significant. After the shortwave moves through, flow will become
more southerly, bringing the marine layer in over Downeast.
This will cause some fog to build in along the coast for early
Monday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm through the
period, becoming more seasonable in the low to mid 70s on
Monday. Coastal temps Downeast will remain cool, with the
influence from the Gulf of Maine. Temperatures Saturday night
and Sunday night will remain fairly chilly, in the mid 40s.

By Monday afternoon, the pattern will become more unsettled with
winds turning more southerly. This will increase temperatures
and humidity across the area in advance of an approaching low
pressure system. Showers will develop from the southwest during
the day, spreading across the whole of northern Maine by the
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The unsettled pattern will continue through Thursday, when a
cold front will cross the area. Ahead of this front, several
troughs will move through, bringing periods of showers. The
timing of these troughs is uncertain at this point, and timing
will also be key in determining whether thunderstorms will
develop along with the showers. On Tuesday and Wednesday,
thunderstorms will be more likely to develop in the afternoon,
with diurnal influences. This may also depend on how much
clearing occurs during the day. By Thursday, the approaching
front will increase instability and widespread thunderstorms are
most likely ahead of the front. Details are too hazy at this
point to determine the exact nature of the storms, so the pre-
storm environment will need to be watched as it develops over
the next several days. Friday remains very uncertain with high
variability in the forecast models as to whether the low lingers
in the area or is pushed out by a weak ridge. Therefore,
confidence is low in the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR across the region overnight through
Saturday. However, occasional MVFR possible along the Downeast
coast mostly Saturday morning with isolated/scattered showers.
Light and variable winds overnight. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots Saturday.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday Night and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Winds light
and variable Saturday night, becoming SW 5-10 kts Sunday.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR north of BGR. However,
BGR and especially BHB will be susceptible to IFR ceilings in
the overnight and early morning hours, with generally VFR
conditions in the afternoons. MVFR possible in showers Monday
through Weds, with isolated TS possible Tues and Weds. S-SW
winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight
through Saturday. Scattered showers mostly Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through this weekend and into early next week.
Wave heights 1 to 2 feet this weekend, building to 2 to 4 feet
early next week. Fog possible over the waters from Sunday night
onward.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TD/Clark
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Clark/LF
Marine...Clark/LF