522
FXUS61 KCAR 171801
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
201 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased fog for tonight and Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Intermittent showers continue through Tuesday evening. No
threat of flooding.

2) Fog likely tonight and Tuesday night. Fog could be dense and
impact travel. Dense fog is possible anywhere, though most
likely near the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent showers continue through Tuesday
evening. No threat of flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The steadier, more widespread rain has moved out. However, we
are still under a very moist airmass, and intermittent showers
will persist through Tuesday evening. This afternoon, there is a
weak and dying occluded front that has moved south into far
Northern Maine. Behind it is a bit of clearing from Fort Kent
west, but just ahead of it, showers are redeveloping from
Clayton Lake to Caribou. This general zone will be the focus for
showers this afternoon into early evening, with the focus slowly
shifting south toward a Dover-Foxcroft to Houlton line this
evening as the front creeps south, with the weak front then totally
stalling and falling apart. Heading into Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, we are still looking at scattered showers with the
moist airmass remaining in place. Additional rainfall totals the
rest of the afternoon through Tuesday evening will generally be
a tenth to a third of an inch, with probably a bit less from
Bangor to the coast. Can`t totally rule out an isolated storm
later this afternoon or Tuesday afternoon central/northern areas,
but not at all concerned about anything strong as surface-based
instability is very limited.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fog likely tonight and Tuesday night. Fog could
be dense and impact travel. Dense fog is possible anywhere,
though most likely near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Fog is a concern tonight and Tuesday night thanks to light winds
and a moist airmass at low levels. Concerned that some fog could
be dense either night, though dense fog versus a very low cloud
ceiling is one of the toughest things for us to predict. We did
add some dense fog into the forecast for near the coast later
tonight, though dense fog is possible anywhere tonight and
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rest of this Afternoon...Generally MVFR or IFR the rest of this
afternoon, with a few spots mainly in the extreme north and near
the coast having some VFR. S wind around 10 kts, except W/SW 5
kts from CAR north.

Tonight...Becoming IFR/LIFR for most sites. Some more
uncertainty from PQI north to CAR and FVE, as some modest
drying is moving in this afternoon and early evening.
Tentatively expect PQI/CAR/FVE to go back down to IFR tonight
(70 percent probability), but the possibility exists for better
conditions. High confidence (over 80 percent) for IFR or lower
at HUL/BGR/BHB developing by later tonight. Light winds.

Tuesday...Starting out IFR or lower for most areas. Should
improve to VFR from PQI north to CAR/FVE after 18z, though
think that HUL/BGR/BHB will stay MVFR. Light winds.

Tuesday Night...IFR or lower likely at all TAF sites after 4z.
Light winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR early, with increasing chance
for MVFR/IFR for north terminals into the afternoon as isolated
showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10
kts.

Thursday-Thursday night: VFR. Winds W to NW at 5 to 10 kts, light
and variable overnight.

Friday: VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Saturday: VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog on the waters tonight through Tuesday night. Winds less than
20 kts and seas less than 4 ft through Tuesday. However, a south
swell could bring seas to around 5 ft Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning, especially for the waters outside of 25 NM.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria mid to late week. Generally SW
winds, gusts to 15 kt, over the waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...TF/ARL