151
FXUS61 KCAR 061059
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
559 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pres moves E of the region on today. A cold front will approach
Sat night and cross the area early Sun morning. Meanwhile, weak low
pressure will track just offshore. Another low pres system will
approach Sun afternoon and track through the Gulf of Maine Sun
night. High pres will approach on Mon and slide S of the area Tue.
Low pres will approach on Wed and cross the region Wednesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
600 AM Update...Adjusted temperatures based on current
observations. Temperatures have been lower than expected in many
places due to a lack of cloud cover allowing for radiational
cooling.

Previous Discussion...

Key Messages
-Light rain/snow showers Downeast this evening
-Cold weather returns Sunday

A weak surface trough is currently developing along the Downeast
coast and will become the focal point for the development of
rain and snow showers Downeast throughout the day today.
Precipitation is expected to begin over the waters this morning
and move inland this afternoon. A mix of rain and snow is
expected along the coast with all snow likely over inland
Downeast areas. A dusting to a half inch is expected which
could make for a few slick spots before precipitation tapers off
to the east tonight.

An arctic cold front will approach the region from the west
tonight and pass through the state during the early morning.
Little precipitation is expected along the front as the boundary
will be weakening but a few snow showers may pop up over the
north. N/NW flow behind the front will usher in more cold air
from Canada beginning another period of well below normal
temperatures. Expect highs to be around 5 degrees below average
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages

-Light snow possible for the Bangor region, interior downeast,
 and the coast Sunday night.

Short wave tracks east Sunday evening and crosses the region later
Sunday night through early Monday. Clouds increase Sunday evening
with snow developing from west to east across much of the forecast
area by midnight. Weak area of low pressure at the surface will
track across the Gulf of Maine later Sunday night. Consensus of 00Z
models supports at least some measurable snow as far north as
the Bangor region through interior Downeast. Thus, have
increased pops from NBM. Even a better chance along the coast
closer to better forcing with low crossing the Gulf of Maine,
thus felt confident enough to go low end categorical there.
Looks like a quick inch or two of snow is possible along the
coast, with perhaps a bit more for Washington County.

Low pressure continues to exit rapidly east to the south of Nova
Scotia during Monday, with decreasing clouds expected through the
afternoon hours. The tightening pressure gradient between the
exiting low and high pressure building of from the west, along with
deep mixed layer could result in Northwest wind gusts
approaching 30 mph across much of the forecast area. Afternoon
highs on Monday will be several degrees below normal for this
time of year.

High pressure builds to the south of the region Monday night with
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Lows will range from
around 5 below zero across the north and zero to 5 above for the
Bangor region and Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message

-Light snow possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

High pressure moves to the east of the east of the southern New
England coast during Tuesday. Short wave energy crosses the
region Tuesday night with a chance of light snow, mainly for
Downeast areas. That feature exits to the east of the Canadian
Maritimes later Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Low pressure
approaches from the west during Wednesday. There is uncertainty
regarding the track of this low. Some guidance takes the low
just to our north, while others slide this low across central
and downeast portion of the forecast area. Have continued with
the NBM forecast likely pops, although the exact low track is
still somewhat uncertain, the likelihood of measurable
precipitation is still fairly high. High pressure track east
Thursday night through Friday.

Afternoon highs will be below normal Tuesday, near normal
Wednesday and Thursday, and below normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

Northern terminals...VFR today with MVFR likely early tonight
in some -SHSN. Conditions should improve to VFR shortly after
midnight. Some LLWS possible early tonight but too low
confidence to include in TAF. VFR Sunday. Light and variable
winds become southerly around 5 kts today. Winds become NW
Sunday morning around 5 to 10 kts.

Southern terminals...VFR early this morning before becoming MVFR
with snow showers, mixing with rain showers at BHB. Occasional
IFR possible. MVFR conditions continue through the evening and
become VFR early tonight. VFR Sunday. Light and variable winds
become southerly around 5 kts today. Winds become NW Sunday
morning around 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday night...MVFR or lower in snow, especially KBGR/KBHB.

Monday...MVFR early, then VFR by afternoon. NW wind G30 kt.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night Through Wednesday...MVFR, Snow north and
snow/rain south.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria
today. Winds increase tonight to near small craft criteria by
Sunday morning with a few gusts to 25 kt possible. Winds
decrease through Sunday afternoon, remaining below small craft
criteria.

SHORT TERM: Winds will increase to SCA levels Sunday night with
possible gale force gusts Monday and Monday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...SM/TWD
Marine...SM/TWD