710
FXUS61 KCAR 070355
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1055 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses Maine overnight, followed by high pressure
building in through Sunday. An area of low pressure tracks from
northeastern New York Sunday evening to near southeastern Nova
Scotia Monday morning. High pressure builds in behind this
system through Monday night, then slides offshore on Tuesday.
Another weak low tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night.
A stronger low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes
Wednesday morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday
morning, followed by a cold front crossing the area on
Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
A strong cold front currently approaching the Saint Lawrence
Valley will cross the forecast area overnight. Warm advection
in advance of the cold front has helped support an area of light
snow/snow showers. This area is currently starting to exit
across eastern portions of the forecast area. Isolated/scattered
snow showers will also accompany the cold front, mostly across
the north and mountains. Any snow accumulations overnight are
expected to be less than an inch. Low temperatures will range
through the single digits above zero to around 10 north, to the
mid to upper teens interior Downeast with lower 20s along the
Downeast coast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions
along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and snow
chances.

Previous Discussion...
What this front will do, is bring a cold air mass which will
remain in place through Sunday night. This will drop
temperatures to well below normal on Sunday and Sunday night,
ensuring that any precip that falls with the weak low
approaching Sunday night will fall as snow.

Sunday evening, a low pressure system will develop over the Gulf
of Maine and move northeast along the coast. This will bring
light snowfall through Sunday night, mostly to Downeast Maine.
The heaviest period of snowfall will be late Sunday night, but
all in all, less than 3 inches of accumulation is expected.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The axis of a northern stream trough crosses the area Monday
morning, supporting some snow across mainly across southeastern
portions of Downeast Maine. It should be dry Monday afternoon
throughout with decreasing clouds with a colder and drier air
mass moving in on NW flow aloft. Highs on Monday should be
around 20 degrees below normal - mainly in the 10s, with wind
chills generally in the negative single digits. Wind gusts of
25-35 mph probable on Monday.

The flow aloft backs from NW to WNW Monday night, with
corresponding warm air advection aloft. Should see some
increase in cloud cover as a result. Lows Monday night should be
around 15-20 degrees below normal, with wind chills around -5
to -15.

Zonal flow Tuesday morning gives way to northern stream
shortwave ridging building in during the afternoon. The
subsidence should be sufficient to keep things dry, but there
will be sufficient moisture advection ahead of the next system
to bring in mid and high clouds, especially in the afternoon.
Highs on Tuesday should be around 10-15 degrees below normal.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Tuesday night
bringing some mainly light snow to the region, with the best
chance of snow, including possibly moderate snowfall, being
across Downeast Maine.

Another northern stream shortwave crosses the area from
Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting to the east late at
night. This should bring a widespread snow to the North with
rain across most of Downeast Maine, with a rain/snow mix in
between. There is the potential for a plowable snowfall if
current trends hold.

Another northern stream shortwave crosses the area on Thursday,
bringing the chance of some snow showers across the North, rain
showers across coastal Downeast, with a mix of rain and snow
showers possible elsewhere.

The models then differ in timing/placing of systems Thursday
night-Saturday, with solutions ranging from dry, to isolated to
scattered showers, to a coastal low. For now went with slight
chance to chance pops during this time frame. Until the models
are able to sort out the main players in this time frame, the
forecast could be quite volatile in this time frame. The one
consistent signal is that it should continue to be seasonably
cold late next week. That would tend to favor any precipitation
being in the form of snow, except possibly a rain/snow mix near
the coast.

Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal Tuesday
night-Thursday, then below normal Thursday night-Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any snow showers overnight.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR overnight through Sunday. VFR/MVFR early
Sunday night then MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, late with snow.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots overnight. West/northwest winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots Sunday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots Sunday night.

SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible at KBHB early.
NW-W winds G20-30KT probable.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. W winds G15-25KT possible Monday
night, SW-S winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday evening. MVFR or lower possible, with
snow across the North, and snow Tuesday night, then rain and/or
snow at southern terminals Wednesday-Wednesday evening. LLWS
possible Tuesday night-Wednesday evening, with the highest
chance at southern terminals.

Late Wednesday night-Thursday...becoming VFR late Wednesday
night. W winds G15-25KT possible Thursday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts to small craft advisory levels are
expected overnight into early Sunday. Small craft advisory
conditions are expected Sunday night, possibly approaching gale
levels late. Isolated/scattered rain and snow showers
overnight. Snow Sunday night.

SHORT TERM: Gale conditions possible on the coastal ocean waters
Monday, will highlight this threat in the HWO. Otherwise SCA
conditions likely on all waters from Monday into Monday night.
There could be a period of sub-SCA conditions Tuesday morning,
before SCA conditions probably return to all waters Tuesday
afternoon. Gales are probable on the coastal ocean waters
Tuesday night, with this threat also highlighted in the HWO,
with SCA conditions likely on the intra- coastal waters. SCA
conditions are then probable on the coastal ocean waters and
possible on the intra- coastal waters Wednesday- Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/LF
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...CN/PM
Marine...CN/PM