223
FXUS61 KCAR 171915
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
315 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in overhead tonight through Saturday
night, then slowly slides to the east through Sunday night.
Low pressure will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Another low will approach from the west Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The closed upper low that brought showers to the area yesterday
continues to track east out over the open Atlantic with high
pressure slowly starting to build in behind it from the west.
Low clouds continue to stick around as a result of persistent
low level moisture from the departing low. A pressure gradient
between the low and the high building in continues to favor
gusty winds through the rest of today. Tonight, winds will
become light in the north as the pressure gradient moves east
but expect a breeze along the coast which in combination with a
few lingering clouds should help prevent strong radiational
cooling. Low temperatures tonight at or below freezing in the
north should favor widespread frost development with a more
marginal chance for some patchy frost along the Downeast coast
as temperatures will be in the upper 30s. Based on the available
guidance, did not have sufficient confidence for a frost
advisory in the Downeast region where the growing season has not
yet ended but caution with tender plants is still advised.

Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in with dry weather
and mostly sunny skies everywhere. Temperatures will be above
normal, reaching the upper 50s in the north and the lower 60s
farther south. Clouds increase tomorrow night which should
prevent strong radiational cooling and keep temperatures above
freezing in most places. A few areas of patchy frost still
possible.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging surface/aloft begins to move east Sunday, with a warm
front lifting north of the region. At the same time, an upper
trof crossing the Great Lakes will support surface low pressure
across western Quebec province. Expect partly sunny skies across
the region Sunday. Ridging will exit across the Maritimes
Sunday night. At the same time, energy moving through the upper
trof will help support a developing closed low across the
Mid-Atlantic region. This upper low will in turn help support a
developing surface low. Expect increasing clouds across the
region Sunday night. Generally expect the region will remain dry
Sunday night. However, if the more aggressive models are
correct could also have a slight chance of rain approaching
western areas late. The vertically stacked system should move
from the Mid-Atlantic region toward southern New England Monday,
though the exact track is still uncertain. With high pressure
still ridged across the Maritimes, uncertainty also still exists
regarding how rapidly rain is able to expand across the region.
The more aggressive model solutions would bring increasing rain
chances Monday, particularly across western and Downeast
portions of the forecast area. Other slower model solutions
indicate rain remaining mainly to the west through Monday, with
generally dry conditions across the forecast area. Due to the
uncertainty, will keep generally dry conditions early with
increasing rain chances during the afternoon. Uncertainty with
the track increases Monday night. Precipitation chances will be
dependent on the eventual track. Expect the better rain chances
across Downeast and central portions of the forecast area
Monday night, with lesser chances across northern Maine.
Rainfall totals with this event will be dependent on the
eventual track of the system. Expect above normal level
temperatures Sunday/Monday.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The system will exit Tuesday, while another system moves east
across the Great Lakes. Expect a chance of showers Tuesday with
the exiting system. Otherwise, generally expect mostly cloudy
skies across northern areas, with partly/mostly cloudy skies
Downeast. The vertically stacking Great Lakes system will draw
an occluded front across the region Wednesday into Wednesday
night, with low pressure possibly developing along the front. An
area of rain should cross the region in advance of the occluded
front possibly enhanced if low pressure does develop, then
tapering to showers Wednesday night. The system should lift
north of the region Thursday, with another upper trof
approaching Thursday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers across northern areas Thursday, with
partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers
Downeast. The upper trof should cross the region Friday with
mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers north,
partly/mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers Downeast.
Expect slightly above normal level temperatures
Tuesday/Wednesday, with near normal level temperatures
Thursday/Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
BGR/BHB have cleared out to VFR and should remain VFR through
tomorrow night. Breezy NNW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to
20 kts should become light around 5 to 10 kts tonight. N winds
around 5 kts Saturday becoming light and variable Saturday
night.

FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL are still hovering around MVFR in low clouds.
Conditions should stay mainly MVFR until this evening but
expected SCT low clouds around 3kft through tonight. VFR
Saturday and Saturday night. NNW winds 5 to 10 kts this
afternoon, becoming light around 5 kts tonight and light and
variable by Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday...VFR. Southeast/south winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10
to 15 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR early, lowering to IFR/LIFR. A slight chance
of rain late west. Southeast/south winds around 10 knots.

Monday...IFR/LIFR early, then MVFR/IFR. Increasing rain chances.
Southeast/south winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.

Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain. Southeast/east winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early then VFR/MVFR. A chance
of showers. Uncertain winds dependent on the eventual track of
low pressure.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A chance of showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast.

Wednesday...IFR/LIFR. Rain. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas have decreased below small craft advisory
criteria but winds remain right around advisory criteria at
about 25 kts. Thus, have decided to continue the SCA through 8
PM tonight. Winds should be on a decreasing trend this afternoon
through Saturday and are expected to be below SCA criteria by
tonight. Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through
Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
through Sunday night. Small craft advisory conditions are then
possible Monday into Monday night. A chance of rain Monday, then
rain Monday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...SM/CN
Marine...SM/CN