183
FXUS61 KCAR 301820
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
220 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- No significant changes.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of
the week, though drought relief is unlikely.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected for
the end of the week, though drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic region results in dry
conditions until Friday. Low pressure to the northwest in Canada
tracks eastward, bringing a relatively weak cold front over the
state Friday into Saturday. Pressure gradient between the high
pressure and the approaching low could help produce some breezy
southwest winds Thursday afternoon.

Based on global models, PWATs are roughly 1.25-1.75 inches,
with higher values concentrated around the central and Downeast
regions. Models continue to hint at precipitation generally
moving in early Friday from the northwest, and moving to the
southeast by Friday night. There is still some model
discrepancies in the end timing, however. Global ensembles
generally keep precipitation totals between half an inch to an
inch. Some members, though, do show a narrow band of enhanced
precipitation, upwards of an inch, somewhere located around
Central Highlands and Downeast region.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rest of Today...Occasional MVFR ceilings KBGR/KBHB. Otherwise,
VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tonight...Variable conditions with any fog late. Otherwise,
VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...Variable conditions with any early fog. Otherwise,
VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR, or lower, possible in rain
showers. S/SW winds Thursday night, shifting W/NW Friday. LLWS
possible Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds, with gusts 15-20 kts possible
Saturday. Winds shift S, with gusts 15-20 kts possible on
Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday...MVFR in rain showers. S winds, that shift
W during the day on Monday. Chance for gusty winds during the
afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through
Friday night. Chance for rain Friday into Friday night, which
could limit visibility. Coastal-25nm, and 25nm-60nm zones could
have seas approach 5 ft late Friday night, with SW winds.

From Saturday into Sunday, N/NW winds over the waters out to
60nm should be below SCA criteria and seas 4 ft or less. Chance
for rain again on Monday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ASB/CN
AVIATION...ASB/CN