918
FXUS61 KCAR 022053
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
453 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure crosses the area tonight,
followed by a cold front approaching on Sunday. The cold front
will weaken while moving south across the region Sunday night
into Monday. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Latest radar reflectivity data shows a few showers developing
to the north of Katahdin, so included isolated shower or
thunderstorms in areas to the north of there through early
evening, otherwise no other significant changes at this time.

previous discussion
A northern stream shortwave trough crosses the area this
evening, followed by weak northern stream shortwave ridging
crossing the area overnight. Beginning to see some showers
develop to the west of the Saint Lawrence River on radar at
1730z. Most high resolution models are a bit far east with this
feature by 18z (over/just east of the Saint Lawrence) with the
exception of the HRRR (no convection)and the CMC-Reg (showers
just west of the Saint Lawrence by 18z. Not so sure though about
the CMC then keeping the showers W of the St Lawrence through
21z. So do bring in some slight chance pops late this
afternoon/early this evening across the Saint John`s Valley.
Most high resolution guidance then shows a second area of
convection that crosses from N Somerset into Piscatiquis county
from 0-3z before dissipating. So have added slight chance pops
in this area as well.

With only a few hundred J/kg of ML-CAPE and generally less than
25 J/kg of CIN over NW areas - have allowed for a slight chance
of thunder in the St John`s Valley late this afternoon as well.
But should only see showers with the second area of convection
with the loss of solar heating by then.

The main story for tonight is the advection in of smoke from NW
to SE from fires in Canada - bring in Haze this evening to all
but coastal Downeast tonight. With the smoke do not expect much
in the way of radiational cooling so went with NBM guidance.
Lows should be in the lower to mid 50s which is a few degrees
below normal.

WNW to zonal flow sets up over the area Sunday. THis will allow
for the continued advection of Smoke over the area from Canada.
Based on HRRR model have continued with smoke over all but
Downeast Maine (except far NE portion), with Haze elsewhere. Suspect
the near zonal flow will continue to hold up the approaching
front, so scaled back on NBM pops and timing, limiting to
chance and keeping across the crown of Maine. Also limited
thunder chance to slight chance, with the risk of any strong
storms is minimal given this set up. Also undercut NBM temps by
a few degrees due to the smoke. Highs on Sunday should range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is a few degrees above
normal.

Northern stream shortwave energy does move in Sunday night,
especially across N portions of the CWA, but with still locally
zonal flow continue to keep pops for showers to areas N of
Katahdin. Given the mechanical mixing ahead of the front and the
passing of northern stream shortwave energy, am less confident
on extent of smoke/haze Sunday night, so have left it out of the
forecast for now. If confidence in it occurring increases,
would not be surprised if it was added in by later shifts. Lows
Sunday night should be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The remnants of a weakening frontal boundary will remain across the
region Monday into Tuesday while slowly drifting south. Otherwise,
high pressure will build across the region, from Quebec province,
Monday through Tuesday night. Convergence along the remnants of
the frontal boundary, along with diurnal heating, will support
a slight chance/chance of showers or a thunderstorm in the
vicinity of the boundary Monday afternoon. Uncertainty exists
regarding whether any convection is able to develop Tuesday
afternoon, with no more than the slight chance of a
shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies
northern/central areas Monday with mostly/partly sunny skies
Downeast. Generally expect mostly clear skies across the region
Monday night into Tuesday night. Near normal, to slightly above
normal, level temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Wednesday/Thursday, begin
to move southeast Friday, then exit southeast of Nova Scotia
Saturday. Generally expect mostly clear skies across the
forecast area Wednesday through Saturday. Near normal, to
slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through tonight. Moderate
confidence in MVFR Haze and/or Smoke developing at northern
terminals Sunday morning, with low confidence in this at
southern terminals. Confidence at southern terminals was to low
to reflect it in the TAFs.

WSW-NW winds 10kt or less this afternoon, becoming light and
variable at all but KFVE this evening. Winds become SW-WSW at
under 10kt through out by mid morning on Sunday. Northern
terminals should see sustained winds increase to around 10kt
and gusts to around 20kt by around midday.

Sun night...Low chance of MVFR in smoke and/or haze.

SHORT TERM:

Monday through Monday night...MVFR possible with any
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2ft or less through
Sunday morning. The gradient tightens a bit Sunday afternoon and
night with sustained winds up to 15kt and gusts up to 20kt
possible. This could bring seas on the coastal ocean waters up
to 3 ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Monday
through Tuesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Maloit
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...TWD/Maloit/Norcross
Marine...TWD/Maloit/Norcross