Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
315 FXUS61 KCAR 300633 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 233 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will slowly cross the region through tonight. High pressure will build in starting Sunday and lasting through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The first and stronger of two surface troughs is currently stretched N to S across the forecast area, very slowly moving to the east. Along this trough, an area of moderate showers has developed and is generally moving NNE. These showers have stabilized somewhat overnight, and although there has been a lightning strike or two, thunderstorms have been quiet for the most part overnight. This will change during the day today, when instability increases with daytime heating. With CAPEs ranging from 500 to 700 J/kg and bulk shear around 25kts, this is not a conducive environment for severe thunderstorms, but a few higher gusts are possible in thunderstorm outflow. Tonight, the trough will continue to progress eastward, with the upper level low remaining over the region through Sunday morning. This will lend some instability and isolated showers are possible across the north through tomorrow morning, but the biggest impact tonight will likely be widespread fog. Sunday has a decreasing chance of showers across the north as the upper level low moves eastward and ridging begins to build in. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through Sunday with the colder air mass behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday night: As the upper level trof exits to the east, the surface high pressure should move into the region. Clear skies and calm winds will drive temps down into the upper 40s for the region. In addition, cool temps should create patchy fog in lower terrain and river valleys. Monday: Surface high pressure remains over the region, bringing mostly sunny skies and temps in the upper 80s. Eyes will be on dew points, especially in areas south of the Central Highlands. As of this update, RH values are between 35 and 45 percent. Monday night: High pressure should remain over the area. The approaching low pressure system moving across the waters from the Mid Atlantic states, could provide some energy to produce clouds. These clouds are expected to keep temps in the low 50s for the night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure is expected to stay in the area through the week. The next system to bring rain to the region should be a cold front expected by the end of the week. The models are showing more consistency with the timing of the front, thought now rain looks to enter the region by Friday. However, there are enough inconsistencies to give low confidence on this timing. Thus, decreased the NBM precip forecast to chance rain showers. Temps should be near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Lowering cigs tonight in -SHRA. Possible TS with frontal passage, although somewhat unlikely at any specific TAF site. Cigs are likely to remain IFR behind the front through the day tomorrow. Possible fog tonight lowering vis as well to IFR or LIFR. Tomorrow, improving conditions from S to N. BGR/BHB/HUL MVFR improving to VFR, PQI/CAR/FVE IFR improving to MVFR. Light W winds becoming NW. SHORT TERM: Sunday night-Monday night...VFR. May be some patchy valley fog Sunday night into Monday morning, which could reduce visibility. Winds from the NW at 5-10 kts Sunday night, before becoming light and variable by Monday. Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR with light winds. Could be a period of MVFR at northern terminals during the day on Tuesday and Wednesday due to light rain showers. Winds become S by Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas below small craft levels through Saturday night with all waters dropping below 3 ft late tonight. Light W winds becoming NW. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria for this period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...LF Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...LF/LaFlash Marine...LF/LaFlash